Integrated assessment of health risk and climate effects of black carbon in the Pearl River Delta region, China.

BACKGROUND Black carbon (BC) caused by incomplete combustion of fossil and bio-fuel has a dual effect on health and climate. There is a need for systematic approaches to evaluation of health outcomes and climate impacts relevant to BC exposure. OBJECTIVES We propose and illustrate for the first time, to our knowledge, an integrated analysis of a region-specific health model with climate change valuation module to quantify the health and climate consequences of BC exposure. METHODS Based on the data from regional air pollution monitoring stations from 2013 to 2014 in the Pearl River Delta region (PRD), China, we analyzed the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects and the relative risk of cause-specific mortality due to BC exposure in three typical cities of the PRD (i.e. Guangzhou, Jiangmen and Huizhou). The radiative forcing (RF) and heating rate (HR) were calculated by the Fu-Liou-Gu (FLG) plane-parallel radiation model and the conversion of empirical formula. We further connected the health and climate impacts by calculating the excess mortalities attributed to climate warming due to BC. RESULTS Between 2013 and 2014, carcinogenic risks of adults and children due to BC exposure in the PRD were higher than the recommended limits (1 × 10-6 to 1 × 10-4), resulting in an excess of 4.82 cancer cases per 10,000 adults (4.82 × 10-4) and an excess of 1.97 cancer cases per 10,000 children (1.97 × 10-4). Non-carcinogenic risk caused by BC was not found. The relative risks of BC exposure on mortality were higher in winter and dry season. The atmospheric RFs of BC were 26.31 W m-2, 26.41 W m-2, and 22.45 W m-2 for Guangzhou, Jiangmen and Huizhou, leading to a warming of the atmosphere in the PRD. The estimated annual excess mortalities of climate warming due to BC were 5052 (95% CI: 1983, 8139), 5121 (95% CI: 2010, 8249) and 4363 (95% CI: 1712, 7032) for Guangzhou, Jiangmen and Huizhou, respectively. CONCLUSION Our estimates suggest that current levels of BC exposure in the PRD region posed a considerable risk to human health and the climate. Reduction of BC emission could lead to substantial health and climate co-benefits.

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