An overview of nowcasting development, applications, and services in the Hong Kong Observatory

The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has been developing a suite of nowcasting systems to support operations of the forecasting center and to provide a variety of nowcasting services for the general public and specialized users. The core system is named the Short-range Warnings of Intense Rainstorm of Localized Systems (SWIRLS), which is a radar-based nowcasting system mainly for the automatic tracking of the movement of radar echoes and the short-range Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF). The differential, integral (or variational), and object-oriented tracking algorithms were developed and integrated into the nowcasting suite. In order to predict severe weather associated with intense thunderstorms, such as high gust, hail, and lightning, SWIRLS was enhanced to SWIRLS-II by introduction of a number of physical models, especially the icing physics as well as the thermodynamics of the atmosphere. SWIRLS-II was further enhanced with non-hydrostatic, high resolution numerical models for extending the forecast range up to 6 h ahead. Meanwhile, SWIRLS was also modifled for providing nowcasting services for aviation community and specialized users. To take into account the rapid development of lightning events, ensemble nowcasting techniques such as time-lagged and weighted average ensemble approaches were also adopted in the nowcasting system. Apart from operational uses in Hong Kong, SWIRLS/SWIRLS-II was also exported to other places to participate in several international events such as the WMO/WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) during the Beijing 2008 Olympics Games and the Shanghai Expo 2010. Meanwhile, SWIRLS has also been transferred to various regional meteorological organizations for establishing their nowcasting infrastructure. This paper summarizes the history and the technologies of SWIRLS/SWIRLS-II and its variants and the associated nowcasting applications and services provided by the HKO since the mid 1990s.

[1]  Edwin S. T. Lai,et al.  Thunderstorm Downburst and Radar-based Nowcasting of Squalls , 2008 .

[2]  Edwin S. T. Lai,et al.  Applications of radar‐based nowcasting techniques for mesoscale weather forecasting in Hong Kong , 2004 .

[3]  Linus H.Y. Yeung,et al.  Lightning Initiation and Intensity Nowcasting based on Isothermal Radar Reflectivity—A Conceptual Model , 2007 .

[4]  Rita D. Roberts,et al.  Nowcasting Challenges during the Beijing Olympics: Successes, Failures, and Implications for Future Nowcasting Systems , 2009 .

[5]  E. Rinehart,et al.  Internal Storm Motions from a Single Non-Doppler Weather Radar. , 1979 .

[6]  Chen Yongqi,et al.  Wet Refractivity Tomography with an Improved Kalman-Filter Method , 2006 .

[7]  P. W. Li,et al.  Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasting in Hong Kong , 2004 .

[8]  M. Dixon,et al.  TITAN: Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis, and Nowcasting—A Radar-based Methodology , 1993 .

[9]  Rashmi Bhardwaj,et al.  Use of SWIRLS nowcasting system for quantitative precipitation forecast using Indian DWR data , 2021, MAUSAM.

[10]  Kazuo Saito,et al.  The Operational JMA Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model , 2006 .

[11]  Rachid Deriche,et al.  Computing Optical Flow via Variational Techniques , 1999, SIAM J. Appl. Math..

[12]  Alan Seed,et al.  Application of Radar-Raingauge Co-Kriging to Improve QPE and Quality Control of Real-time Rainfall Data , 2011 .

[13]  PRELIMINARY PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF A RAINSTORM NOWCASTING SYSTEM , 2002 .

[14]  W. Wong,et al.  Aviation Model: A Fine-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction System for Aviation Applications at the Hong Kong International Airport , 2013 .

[15]  A. Robert.  A Semi-Lagrangian and Semi-Implicit Numerical Integration Scheme for the Primitive Meteorological Equations , 1982 .

[16]  Development of an Advanced Aviation Nowcasting System by Including Rapidly Updated NWP Model in Support of Air Traffic Management , 2010 .

[17]  John A. McGinley,et al.  The Local Analysis and Prediction System ( LAPS ) : Analyses of Clouds, Precipitation, and Temperature , 1996 .