The multi-class binomial failure rate model

The impact of common cause failure (CCF) on PSA results for NPPs is in sharp contrast with the limited quality which can be achieved in their assessment. This is due to the dearth of observations and cannot be remedied in the short run. Therefore, the methods employed for calculating failure rates should be devised such as to make the best use of the few available observations on CCF. The Multi-Class Binomial Failure Rate (MCBFR) Model presented here achieves this by assigning observed failures to different classes according to their technical characteristics and applying the BFR formalism to each of these. The results are determined by a superposition of BFR type expressions for each class, each of them with its own coupling factor. The model hence integrates additional technical information on CCFs and leads to a better quality of results whenever this information is available. This is demonstrated by evaluating CCFs observed for combined impulse pilot valves in German NPPs.