Recognition of Emerging Technology Trends . A Case Study based on the Analysis of the U . S . Patent Citation Network

By adopting a citation-based recursive ranking method for patents the evolution of new field of technologies can be traced. Specifically, the laser / inkjet printer technology emerged from the recombination of existing technologies, such as sequential printing and static image production. The dynamics of the citations coming from the different ”precursor” classes illuminate the mechanism of the emergence of new fields and give the possibility to make predictions about future technological development.

[1]  Péter Érdi,et al.  Prediction of emerging technologies based on analysis of the US patent citation network , 2012, Scientometrics.

[2]  Sebastiano Vigna,et al.  Spectral ranking , 2009, Network Science.

[3]  Reijo Savolainen,et al.  Interpreting informational cues: An explorative study on information use among prospective homebuyers , 2009 .

[4]  Péter Érdi,et al.  Patent Citation Networks Revisited: Signs of a Twenty-First Century Change? , 2009 .

[5]  S. Redner,et al.  Promise and Pitfalls of Extending Google's PageRank Algorithm to Citation Networks , 2008, The Journal of Neuroscience.

[6]  S. Fortunato,et al.  Spectral centrality measures in complex networks. , 2008, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[7]  Sergei Maslov,et al.  Ranking scientific publications using a model of network traffic , 2006, ArXiv.

[8]  K. Avrachenkov,et al.  A Singular Perturbation Approach for Choosing the PageRank Damping Factor , 2006, Internet Math..

[9]  Jan Tobochnik,et al.  Law and the Science of Networks: An Overview and an Application to the 'Patent Explosion' , 2006 .

[10]  A. Flammini,et al.  Random Walks on Directed Networks: the Case of PageRank , 2006, Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos.

[11]  P. Érdi,et al.  Modeling innovation by a kinetic description of the patent citation system , 2005, physics/0508132.

[12]  Sebastiano Vigna,et al.  PageRank as a function of the damping factor , 2005, WWW '05.

[13]  O. Sorenson,et al.  Technology as a complex adaptive system: evidence from patent data , 2001 .

[14]  Sergey Brin,et al.  The Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web Search Engine , 1998, Comput. Networks.

[15]  Andrew B. Hargadon,et al.  Technology brokering and innovation in a product development firm. , 1997 .

[16]  Toby E. Stuart,et al.  Networks, Knowledge, and Niches: Competition in the Worldwide Semiconductor Industry, 1984-1991 , 1996, American Journal of Sociology.

[17]  Toby E. Stuart,et al.  A Role-Based Ecology of Technological Change , 1995, American Journal of Sociology.

[18]  Kim B. Clark,et al.  Architectural Innovation: The Reconfiguration of Existing Product Technologies and the Failure of , 1990 .

[19]  M. J. Shaffer.  Entrepreneurial Innovation: Patent Rank and Marketing Science , 2011 .

[20]  Péter Érdi,et al.  The Inverse Problem of Evolving Networks — with Application to Social Nets , 2008 .

[21]  Péter Érdi,et al.  Complexity Explained , 2006 .

[22]  Martin L. Weitzman,et al.  Hybridizing Growth Theory , 1996 .

[23]  Douglas H. Joines,et al.  Business Cycles , 1970 .