The role of spatial foresight in models of hominin dispersal.

Increasingly sophisticated hominin cognition is assumed to play an important role in major dispersal events but it is unclear what that role is. We present an agent-based model showing that there is a close relationship between level of foresight, environmental heterogeneity, and population dispersibility. We explore the dynamics between these three factors and discuss how they may affect the capacity of a hominin population to disperse. Generally, we find that high levels of environmental heterogeneity select for increased foresight and that high levels of foresight tend to reduce dispersibility. This suggests that cognitively complex hominins in heterogeneous environments have low dispersibility relative to cognitively less complex organisms in more homogeneous environments. The model predicts that the environments leading up to major episodes of dispersal, such as the initial hominin dispersal into Eurasia, were likely relatively low in spatial heterogeneity and that the dispersing hominins had relatively low foresight.