Quantifying the effect of interactions between disease control, nitrogen supply and land use change on the greenhouse gas emissions associated with wheat production

A method for calculating the effect of disease control on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with wheat production, reported previously, was developed further to account for effects of disease control on the amount of fertilizer nitrogen (N) which should be applied and on changes in land use. Data from nine randomized and replicated field experiments from the UK and Denmark showed that the economic optimum N input to winter wheat was greater if diseases were controlled by fungicides, than for untreated wheat. The GHGs associated with this additional N largely negated the benefit to emissions per tonne of grain resulting from disease control. However, the mean grain yield obtained without fungicide treatment was 6·71 t ha−1, compared to 8·88 t ha−1 with fungicide treatment, if N input was optimal for each situation. In the absence of disease control by fungicides, and assuming that the optimum N rate was used, an additional 481 kha of wheat would be required to maintain UK wheat production at the current level. If the additional land area came from converting temperate grassland to arable production, the GHG emissions caused by ploughing grassland would cause emissions to rise from 503 to 713 kg CO2e per tonne of grain produced. This would result in an additional 3·15 Mt CO2e per year to produce the typical UK annual production of 15 Mt. This analysis reinforces the importance of winning the ‘arms race’ against pathogen evolution towards fungicide insensitivity and virulence.