Probability statistics method of computing hydrocarbon generating quantity of source rock

In order to evaluate the reliability computing hydrocarbon generating quantity of source rock,we researched and applied a probability statistics method which may reflect the uncertainty of geology parameters and the exploration risks.Firstly,we analyzed the probability distribution of parameters related to source rock by Markov method.Secondly,we carried out random sampling according to the probability distribution and restricting with the raw data.Thirdly,we computed the hydrocarbon generating quantity with the data of samples.Through repetition of the second and the third step,we found a statistical rule and gained the hydrocarbon generating quantity of source rock in different probability.We computed the hydrocarbon generating quantity of superficial-middle layer in Binbei area of Songliao basin with the method.Compared with method of chemical kinetics,its reliability may achieve 75%,and compared with method of simulation experiment,its reliability may achieve 100%.It can be an auxiliary method during evaluating exploration risk.