Formal reliability analysis of protective systems in smart grids

Given the enormous amount of random and uncertain parameters that affect the performance of smart grids, compared to traditional power grids, a rigorous reliability analysis holds a vital role in ensuring the safe operation of this safety-critical domain. Based on such an analysis, appropriate protective systems are designed and included in the smart grid systems. Traditionally, the reliability analysis of smart grids is done using numerical methods and computational intelligence based techniques. However, none of these traditional analysis techniques can guarantee absolute accuracy of the load flow analysis results due to their inherent incompleteness. As a more accurate alternative, we propose to use probabilistic model checking, i.e., a formal analysis method for Markovian models, for conducing the load flow analysis of smart grids. In particular, the paper provides a reliability assessment of smart grid components with backup protection using the PRISM model checker. Our results have shown significant improvement in terms of completeness and precision compared to the results obtained via numerical methods for the same load flow analysis problems.