The lifetime of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide

We explore the effects of a changing terrestrial biosphere on the atmospheric residence time of CO2 using three simple ocean carbon cycle models and a model of global terrestrial carbon cycling. We find differences in model behavior associated with the assumption of an active terrestrial biosphere (forest regrowth) and significant differences if we assume a donor-dependent flux from the atmosphere to the terrestrial component (e.g., a hypothetical terrestrial fertilization flux). To avoid numerical difficulties associated with treating the atmospheric CO2 decay (relaxation) curve as being well approximated by a weighted sum of exponential functions, we define the single half-life as the time it takes for a model atmosphere to relax from its present-day value half way to its equilibrium pCO2 value. This scenario-based approach also avoids the use of unit pulse (Dirac Delta) functions which can prove troublesome or unrealistic in the context of a terrestrial fertilization assumption. We also discuss some of the numerical problems associated with a conventional lifetime calculation which is based on an exponential model. We connect our analysis of the residence time of CO2 and the concept of single half-life to the residence time calculations which are based on using weighted sums of exponentials. We note that the single half-life concept focuses upon the early decline of CO2 under a cutoff/decay scenario. If one assumes a terrestrial biosphere with a fertilization flux, then our best estimate is that the single half-life for excess CO2 lies within the range of 19 to 49 years, with a reasonable average being 31 years. If we assume only regrowth, then the average value for the single half-life for excess CO2 increases to 72 years, and if we remove the terrestrial component completely, then it increases further to 92 years.

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