Analyzing Competition of the High Speed Train with Alternative Modes. The Case of the Corridor Madrid-Zaragoza-Barcelona

This paper describes how there has been little attention paid to the analysis of the demand for inter-urban rail travel demand. The studies on inter-urban rail demand are usually focused on the assessment through conventional cost benefit analysis of this type of investments, in which the emphasis is put on the cost side. However, the analysis of the potential benefits, having in mind the intermodal competition, is usually neglected. This paper analyzes the potential competition of the high speed train (HST) with the main competing modes in the line Madrid-Barcelona, where a new HST infrastructure is being built. The analysis is based on the estimation of disaggregated demand models using information provided by travellers in the main corridors: Madrid-Zaragoza and Madrid-Barcelona. The paper will conclude by analyzing demand response to various policy scenarios that consider the potential competition between HST and other modes. Results highlight the low level of competition that the HST could exert over the air transport services in Madrid-Barcelona corridor, showing that policy makers may have been very optimist about the figures of traffic diversion from air which could be attained.