Probability Forecasting in Sweden: Some Results of Experimental and Operational Programs at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

Abstract This paper describes new operational and experimental forecasting programs at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) designed to provide users with more detailed and more useful weather forecasts. User groups currently served by these programs include construction contractors, farmers, electric power companies, street and highway departments, and ski resorts. The programs represent a major component of a SMHI-wide effort to develop products to meet the needs of the public and private sectors in Sweden for meteorological and hydrological information. An important feature of these programs is that many of the forecasts are expressed in probabilistic terms, and some results of the probability forecasting components of four programs are presented here. These subjective forecasts specify the likelihood of occurrence of various precipitation, wind speed, temperature, and cloud amount events, and they generally involve relatively short lead times and/or valid periods. The probabili...