1 MANAGEMENT SUPPORT BY OPTIMIZATION-BASED TRADE-OFF ANALYSIS – THE EXAMPLE OF BIODIESEL CROP PRODUCTION

Modeling in decision support applications has often been used to compare outcomes between alternative scenarios of decision options. The introduction of optimization methods enable the comparison of a very large number of scenarios that can be used to construct an approximation of Pareto optimal trade-offs among competing objectives. These represent the best compromise solutions that are available to the stakeholders. We show for the example of biodiesel crop production how such an optimization approach can be used to identify a set of potential solutions. We specified the separate objectives of biodiesel crop production, food and fodder production, water quality and minimum discharge, and searched for the best trade-offs among them using a relative recent optimization method. The analysis was based on an integrated river basin model (SWAT) and a multi-objective genetic algorithm (NSGA-II), and was set in the Parthe catchment in Central Germany. To ease communication with stakeholders and decision makers, we identified clusters in the results through use of a self organizing map approach. The clusters represent solutions of similar management strategies for the watershed, from which decision makers and stakeholders can select suitable compromise solutions. The effects of increased biodiesel crop production on the other objectives were mainly triggered by the share of silage corn and sugar beets in the crop rotations. Generally speaking, negative effects on low flow caused by increased biodiesel crop production in the region could be avoided by a shift from silage corn to sugar beets or a reduction of total crop yields. Nitrate concentrations were more sensitive to total crop yield by bioenergy and food and fodder crops.

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