This paper introduces the theoretical basis of reliability prediction method based on Bellcore standard, including device failure rate and unit failure rate model. Active Bellcore standard-Telcordia SR-332 version manual is used for a Single-phase fischer-controlled smart meter reliability prediction in the commercial environment. The process and method of reliability prediction is given to the smart meter, as well as the expected failure rate results. At last, discuss the advantage and disadvantage of the reliability prediction method based on Bellcore.