Climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean as revealed by self-organizing maps

Using a non-linear statistical analysis called “self-organizing maps”, the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the southern Indian Ocean are investigated. The SST anomalies during austral summer from 1951 to 2006 are classified into nine types with differences in the position of positive and negative SST anomaly poles. To investigate the evolution of these SST anomaly poles, heat budget analysis of mixed-layer using outputs from an ocean general circulation model is conducted. The warming of the mixed-layer by the climatological shortwave radiation is enhanced (suppressed) as a result of negative (positive) mixed-layer thickness anomaly over the positive (negative) SST anomaly pole. This contribution from shortwave radiation is most dominant in the growth of SST anomalies. In contrast to the results reported so far, the contribution from latent heat flux anomaly is not so important. The discrepancy in the analysis is explained by the modulation in the contribution from the climatological heat flux by the interannual mixed-layer depth anomaly that was neglected in the past studies.

[1]  A. Sterl,et al.  The ERA‐40 re‐analysis , 2005 .

[2]  Swadhin K. Behera,et al.  Comments on ''A Cautionary Note on the Interpretation of EOFs'' , 2003 .

[3]  Yukio Masumoto,et al.  Impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on intraseasonal zonal currents at 90°E on the equator as revealed by self‐organizing map , 2008 .

[4]  C. Reason,et al.  Interannual warm and cool events in the subtropical/mid‐latitude South Indian Ocean Region , 1999 .

[5]  Swadhin K. Behera,et al.  Seasonal Climate Predictability in a Coupled OAGCM Using a Different Approach for Ensemble Forecasts , 2005 .

[6]  C. Reason Subtropical Indian Ocean SST dipole events and southern African rainfall , 2001 .

[7]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.

[8]  C. Paulson,et al.  Irradiance Measurements in the Upper Ocean , 1977 .

[9]  C. Reason,et al.  Sensitivity of the southern African circulation to dipole sea‐surface temperature patterns in the south Indian Ocean , 2002 .

[10]  C. Reason,et al.  Relationships between South African rainfall and SST anomalies in the Southwest Indian Ocean , 1999 .

[11]  Roxana C. Wajsowicz Potential predictability of tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies , 2005 .

[12]  T. Yamagata,et al.  Experimental Forecasts of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using a Coupled OAGCM , 2007 .

[13]  Sébastien Masson,et al.  Tropical Indian Ocean variability revealed by self-organizing maps , 2008 .

[14]  M. Balmaseda,et al.  Tropical Atlantic SST Prediction with Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCMs , 2006 .

[15]  D. E. Harrison,et al.  Mechanisms of Summertime Subtropical Southern Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Variability: On the Importance of Humidity Anomalies and the Meridional Advection of Water Vapor* , 2007 .

[16]  T. Yamagata,et al.  Indian Ocean subtropical dipole simulated using a coupled general circulation model , 2004 .

[17]  Christopher N. K. Mooers,et al.  Performance evaluation of the self‐organizing map for feature extraction , 2006 .

[18]  T. Yamagata,et al.  The Atlantic Meridional Mode and Its Coupled Variability with the Guinea Dome , 2010 .

[19]  Simon J. Mason,et al.  Sea-surface temperature — South African rainfall associations, 1910–1989 , 1995 .

[20]  B. Goswami,et al.  A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean , 1999, Nature.

[21]  Mark A. Cane,et al.  Experimental forecasts of El Niño , 1986, Nature.

[22]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Improvements to NOAA’s Historical Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880–2006) , 2008 .

[23]  J. Smagorinsky,et al.  GENERAL CIRCULATION EXPERIMENTS WITH THE PRIMITIVE EQUATIONS , 1963 .

[24]  C. Reason Warm and cold events in the southeast Atlantic/southwest Indian Ocean region and potential impacts on circulation and rainfall over southern Africa , 1998 .

[25]  L. Mysak,et al.  An interdecadal climate cycle in the South Atlantic , 1998 .

[26]  T. Yamagata,et al.  A modeling study of interannual variations of the Seychelles Dome , 2010 .

[27]  Jorma Laaksonen,et al.  SOM_PAK: The Self-Organizing Map Program Package , 1996 .

[28]  R. Pacanowski,et al.  Parameterization of Vertical Mixing in Numerical Models of Tropical Oceans , 1981 .

[29]  Swadhin K. Behera,et al.  Subtropical SST dipole events in the southern Indian Ocean , 2001 .

[30]  C. Reason,et al.  Multidecadal Variability in the Climate System over the Indian Ocean Region during the Austral Summer. , 1995 .

[31]  C. Reason,et al.  Ocean Model Diagnosis of Interannual Coevolving SST Variability in the South Indian and South Atlantic Oceans , 2005 .

[32]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century , 2003 .

[33]  Sylvie Thiria,et al.  Detecting decadal changes in ENSO using neural networks , 2006 .

[34]  P. Roucou,et al.  Sea‐surface temperature co‐variability in the Southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans and its connections with the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere , 2003 .

[35]  Teuvo Kohonen,et al.  Self-organized formation of topologically correct feature maps , 2004, Biological Cybernetics.

[36]  T. Kohonen Self-organized formation of topographically correct feature maps , 1982 .

[37]  J. Moisan,et al.  The Seasonal Heat Budget of the North Pacific: Net Heat Flux and Heat Storage Rates (1950–1990) , 1998 .