SIMS(DAIRY): a modelling framework to identify sustainable dairy farms in the UK. Framework description and test for organic systems and N fertiliser optimisation.

Multiple demands are placed on farming systems today. Society, national legislation and market forces seek what could be seen as conflicting outcomes from our agricultural systems, e.g. food quality, affordable prices, a healthy environmental, consideration of animal welfare, biodiversity etc., Many of these demands, or desirable outcomes, are interrelated, so reaching one goal may often compromise another and, importantly, pose a risk to the economic viability of the farm. SIMS(DAIRY), a farm-scale model, was used to explore this complexity for dairy farm systems. SIMS(DAIRY) integrates existing approaches to simulate the effect of interactions between farm management, climate and soil characteristics on losses of nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon. The effects on farm profitability and attributes of biodiversity, milk quality, soil quality and animal welfare are also included. SIMS(DAIRY) can also be used to optimise fertiliser N. In this paper we discuss some limitations and strengths of using SIMS(DAIRY) compared to other modelling approaches and propose some potential improvements. Using the model we evaluated the sustainability of organic dairy systems compared with conventional dairy farms under non-optimised and optimised fertiliser N use. Model outputs showed for example, that organic dairy systems based on grass-clover swards and maize silage resulted in much smaller total GHG emissions per l of milk and slightly smaller losses of NO(3) leaching and NO(x) emissions per l of milk compared with the grassland/maize-based conventional systems. These differences were essentially because the conventional systems rely on indirect energy use for 'fixing' N compared with biological N fixation for the organic systems. SIMS(DAIRY) runs also showed some other potential benefits from the organic systems compared with conventional systems in terms of financial performance and soil quality and biodiversity scores. Optimisation of fertiliser N timings and rates showed a considerable scope to reduce the (GHG emissions per l milk too).

[1]  W. Sutherland,et al.  The effects of flooding lowland wet grassland on soil macroinvertebrate prey of breeding wading birds , 2001 .

[2]  M. B. McGechan,et al.  A review of losses arising during conservation of grass forage: part 2, storage losses , 1989 .

[3]  D R Buckmaster,et al.  A dairy herd model for use in whole farm simulations. , 1999, Journal of dairy science.

[4]  F. Gordon,et al.  Effect of harvesting system on nutrient losses during silage making. 2. In‐silo losses , 1986 .

[5]  P. Gregorini,et al.  Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from New Zealand dairy systems using a mechanistic whole farm model and inventory methodology , 2011 .

[6]  N. Holden,et al.  An evaluation of life cycle assessment of European milk production. , 2011, Journal of environmental management.

[7]  J. France,et al.  Evaluation of enteric methane prediction equations for dairy cows used in whole farm models , 2010 .

[8]  H. S. Raumer,et al.  Threshold values for nature protection areas as indicators for bio-diversity—a regional evaluation of economic and ecological consequences , 2003 .

[9]  Paul Leahy,et al.  Carbon sequestration determined using farm scale carbon balance and eddy covariance , 2007 .

[10]  P. Mineau,et al.  The impact of agricultural practices on biodiversity , 1995 .

[11]  D E Bauman,et al.  Effect of dietary lipid source on conjugated linoleic acid concentrations in milk fat. , 2001, Journal of dairy science.

[12]  A. Butler,et al.  Modelling Integrated Dairy Systems In The UK: Towards Economic and Environmental Sustainability , 2007 .

[13]  P. Huhtanen,et al.  Effect of dietary fish oil on biohydrogenation of fatty acids and milk fatty acid content in cows , 2003 .

[14]  David Scholefield,et al.  Use of SIMSDAIRY modelling framework system to compare the scope on the sustainability of a dairy farm of animal and plant genetic-based improvements with management-based changes , 2008, The Journal of Agricultural Science.

[15]  S. Jarvis,et al.  Methane emission and uptake from soils as influenced by excreta deposition from grazing animals , 1999 .

[16]  L. Firbank.  Striking a new balance between agricultural production and biodiversity , 2005 .

[17]  R. Schneider,et al.  Effects of organic and inorganic amendments on soil organic matter properties , 2009 .

[18]  M. Pariza,et al.  Conjugated linoleic acid content of milk from cows fed different diets. , 1999, Journal of dairy science.

[19]  J. Olesen,et al.  Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in European conventional and organic dairy farming , 2006 .

[20]  B. M. Petersen,et al.  Evaluating nitrogen taxation scenarios using the dynamic whole farm simulation model FASSET , 2003 .

[21]  D. Macdonald,et al.  Agronomic and environmental implications of organic farming systems , 2001 .

[22]  R. Morgan,et al.  A simple approach to soil loss prediction: a revised Morgan–Morgan–Finney model , 2001 .

[23]  Mieke Uyttendaele,et al.  Wageningen Academic Publishers , 2005 .

[24]  C. Cederberg,et al.  Life cycle assessment of milk production — a comparison of conventional and organic farming , 2000 .

[25]  C. Rotz,et al.  Whole-farm perspectives of nutrient flows in grassland agriculture , 2005 .

[26]  J. B. Holter,et al.  Methane prediction in dry and lactating Holstein cows. , 1992, Journal of dairy science.

[27]  A.J.H. Van Es,et al.  The nutrient requirements of ruminant livestock , 1982 .

[28]  U. Bütikofer,et al.  Impact of a basal diet of hay and fodder beet supplemented with rapeseed, linseed and sunflowerseed on the fatty acid composition of milk fat , 2004 .

[29]  S. Anthony,et al.  The impact of increasing the length of the cattle grazing season on emissions of ammonia and nitrous oxide and on nitrate leaching in England and Wales , 2005 .

[30]  A. Verhagen,et al.  A farm level approach to define successful mitigation strategies for GHG emissions from ruminant livestock systems , 2005, Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems.

[31]  L. Nesheim,et al.  Nitrogen fixation by white clover when competing with grasses at moderately low temperatures , 1991, Plant and Soil.

[32]  T. Yan,et al.  Prediction of methane energy output in dairy and beef cattle offered grass silage-based diets , 2000 .

[33]  D. Dubois,et al.  Soil Fertility and Biodiversity in Organic Farming , 2002, Science.

[34]  Harald Sverdrup,et al.  FARMFLOW - A dynamic model for phosphorus mass flow, simulating conventional and organic management of a Swedish dairy farm , 2007 .

[35]  I. Hoving,et al.  Maize silage for dairy cows: mitigation of methane emissions can be offset by land use change , 2011, Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems.

[36]  C. Pacini,et al.  Evaluation of sustainability of organic, integrated and conventional farming systems: a farm and field-scale analysis , 2003 .

[37]  M. Jouven,et al.  Simulating grassland utilization in beef suckler systems to investigate the trade-offs between production and floristic diversity , 2008 .

[38]  J. M. Forbes.  9 – Prediction of voluntary intake , 1986 .

[39]  D. Mertens.  Creating a system for meeting the fiber requirements of dairy cows. , 1997, Journal of dairy science.

[40]  Evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions and design of mitigation options: a whole farm approach based on farm management data and mechanistic models , 2008 .

[41]  J. McQuaid,et al.  A Note on the Emission of Nitrogen Oxides from Silage in Opened Bunker Silos , 2002, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[42]  N. Culleton,et al.  The application of parameters designed to measure nature conservation and landscape development on Irish farms , 2000 .

[43]  A. G. Evers,et al.  DairyWise, a whole-farm dairy model. , 2007, Journal of dairy science.

[44]  S. Moore,et al.  Modeling methane production from beef cattle using linear and nonlinear approaches. , 2009, Journal of animal science.

[45]  Ruud B.M. Huirne,et al.  Ecological-economic modelling to support multi-objective policy making: a farming systems approach implemented for Tuscany , 2004 .

[46]  B. Speake,et al.  Effect of dietary fat supplements on levels of n-3 poly-unsaturated fatty acids, trans acids and conjugated linoleic acid in bovine milk , 1999 .

[47]  D. Kay,et al.  Farmyards, an overlooked source for highly contaminated runoff. , 2008, Journal of environmental management.

[48]  J. Frame,et al.  Agronomy of White Clover , 1986 .

[49]  T. Bruulsema,et al.  Review of greenhouse gas emissions from crop production systems and fertilizer management effects , 2009 .

[50]  D. Chadwick,et al.  Methane fluxes following slurry applications to grassland soils: laboratory experiments , 1997 .

[51]  R. Dewhurst,et al.  Increasing the concentrations of beneficial polyunsaturated fatty acids in milk produced by dairy cows in high-forage systems , 2006 .

[52]  D. Scholefield,et al.  A model to predict transformations and losses of nitrogen in UK pastures grazed by beef cattle , 1991, Plant and Soil.

[53]  J. Verdú,et al.  Conservation strategy of a nature reserve in Mediterranean ecosystems: the effects of protection from grazing on biodiversity , 2000, Biodiversity & Conservation.

[54]  P. Visscher,et al.  Contrasting models for lactation curve analysis. , 2002, Journal of dairy science.

[55]  C. Cederberg.  Life cycle inventory of 23 dairy farms in south-western Sweden , 2004 .

[56]  R. Green,et al.  FORAGING HABITATS OF FEMALE COMMON SNIPE GALLINAGO GALLINAGO DURING THE INCUBATION PERIOD , 1990 .

[57]  Paul Berentsen,et al.  An environmental-economic model at farm level to analyse institutional and technical change in dairy farming , 1995 .

[58]  K. Smith,et al.  A survey of the production and use of animal manures in England and Wales. I. Pig manure , 2000 .

[59]  T. Wright,et al.  Apparent transfer efficiency of docosahexaenoic acid from diet to milk in dairy cows , 1999 .

[60]  R. Dewhurst,et al.  Improving the quality of products from grassland , 2009 .

[61]  D. S. Chianese,et al.  The carbon footprint of dairy production systems through partial life cycle assessment. , 2010, Journal of dairy science.

[62]  Paul J. A. Withers,et al.  PSYCHIC – A process-based model of phosphorus and sediment mobilisation and delivery within agricultural catchments. Part 1: Model description and parameterisation , 2008 .

[63]  J. Dijkstra,et al.  Comparison of energy evaluation systems and a mechanistic model for milk production by dairy cattle offered fresh grass-based diets , 2008 .

[64]  J. P. Grime,et al.  Plant Strategies and Vegetation Processes. , 1980 .

[65]  N. Scialabba,et al.  Organic agriculture and climate change , 2010, Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems.

[66]  Philippe Lecomte,et al.  GAMEDE: A global activity model for evaluating the sustainability of dairy enterprises Part I - Whole-farm dynamic model , 2009 .

[67]  B. F. Pain,et al.  Opportunities for reducing the environmental impact of dairy farming managements: a systems approach , 1996 .

[68]  D. Rigby,et al.  Constructing a farm level indicator of sustainable agricultural practice , 2001 .

[69]  Ruud B.M. Huirne,et al.  An LP-model to analyse economic and ecological sustainability on Dutch dairy farms: model presentation and application for experimental farm "de Marke" , 2004 .

[70]  C. Seal,et al.  Fat composition of organic and conventional retail milk in northeast England. , 2011, Journal of dairy science.

[71]  D. K. Lovett,et al.  A systems approach to quantify greenhouse gas fluxes from pastoral dairy production as affected by management regime , 2006 .

[72]  J. Penman,et al.  Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories CH 4 Emissions from Solid Waste Disposal 419 CH 4 EMISSIONS FROM SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL , 2022 .

[73]  L. Cárdenas,et al.  Exploring systems responses to mitigation of GHG in UK dairy farms , 2010 .

[74]  J. Soussana,et al.  A review of farm level modelling approaches for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from ruminant livestock systems , 2007 .

[75]  I. D. Boer,et al.  Life cycle assessment of conventional and organic milk production in the Netherlands , 2008 .

[76]  N. Halberg,et al.  Energy Utilization in Crop and Dairy Production in Organic and Conventional Livestock Production Systems , 1998 .

[77]  C. Thomas,et al.  Feed into milk : a new applied feeding system for dairy cows : an advisory manual , 2004 .

[78]  James M. Gibbons,et al.  Modelling optimal strategies for decreasing nitrate loss with variation in weather - a farm-level approach , 2005 .

[79]  Philip W. Gassman,et al.  Economic and environmental impacts of pasture nutrient management , 2003 .

[80]  I. Hodge,et al.  The introduction of Entry Level Stewardship in England: Extension or dilution in agri-environment policy? , 2010 .

[81]  D. Schingoethe,et al.  Feeding fish meal and extruded soybeans enhances the conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) content of milk. , 2002, Journal of dairy science.

[82]  D. A. Dwyer,et al.  Dietary fatty acid sources affect conjugated linoleic acid concentrations in milk from lactating dairy cows. , 1998, The Journal of nutrition.

[83]  D. Schingoethe,et al.  Influence of dietary fish oil on conjugated linoleic acid and other fatty acids in milk fat from lactating dairy cows. , 2000, Journal of dairy science.

[84]  Robert Fish,et al.  A cross-disciplinary toolkit to assess the risk of faecal indicator loss from grassland farm systems to surface waters. , 2009 .

[85]  Hannah Jones,et al.  Organic food: What we know (and do not know) about consumers , 2010, Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems.

[86]  Frank Nevens,et al.  Validating sustainability indicators: Focus on ecological aspects of Flemish dairy farms , 2009 .

[87]  Carolien Kroeze,et al.  Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories : Chapter 4. Agriculture , 1997 .

[88]  C. Rotz,et al.  Economic and environmental feasibility of a perennial cow dairy farm. , 2005, Journal of dairy science.

[89]  N. Holden,et al.  Analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from the average Irish milk production system , 2005 .

[90]  M. Doreau,et al.  Influence of supplementary fish oil and rumen-protected methionine on milk yield and composition in dairy cows , 1997, Journal of Dairy Research.

[91]  A. Collins,et al.  PSYCHIC – A process-based model of phosphorus and sediment transfers within agricultural catchments. Part 2. A preliminary evaluation , 2008 .

[92]  Tom Misselbrook,et al.  A mass-flow model of ammonia emissions from UK livestock production , 2004 .

[93]  D. Bauman,et al.  Modifying milk fat composition of dairy cows to enhance fatty acids beneficial to human health , 2004, Lipids.

[94]  D. E. Beever,et al.  Nitrogen pollution by dairy cows and its mitigation by dietary manipulation , 2001, Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems.

[95]  J. J. Schröder,et al.  Energy Use in Conventional and Organic Farming Systems , 2003 .

[96]  Mark Rounsevell,et al.  Belgium’s CO2 mitigation potential under improved cropland management , 2004 .

[97]  David Scholefield,et al.  NGAUGE : A decision support system to optimise N fertilisation of British grassland for economic and environmental goals , 2005 .

[98]  J. G. Conijn,et al.  Evaluating farm performance using agri-environmental indicators: recent experiences for nitrogen management in The Netherlands. , 2007, Journal of environmental management.

[99]  M. Pariza,et al.  Conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) content of milk from cows offered diets rich in linoleic and linolenic acid. , 2000, Journal of dairy science.

[100]  Michel Doreau,et al.  Effect of different types of forages, animal fat or marine oils in cow’s diet on milk fat secretion and composition, especially conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) and polyunsaturated fatty acids , 2001 .

[101]  D. Schingoethe,et al.  Composition and properties of milk and butter from cows fed fish oil. , 2001, Journal of dairy science.

[102]  K. A. Smith,et al.  A survey of the production and use of animal manures in England and Wales , 2001 .

[103]  B. J. Chambers,et al.  Predicting nitrogen availability and losses following application of organic manures to arable land: MANNER , 1999 .

[104]  M. Wallace,et al.  The influence of strain of Holstein-Friesian cow and feeding system on greenhouse gas emissions from pastoral dairy farms. , 2010, Journal of dairy science.

[105]  J. France,et al.  Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows. , 2003, Journal of animal science.

[106]  G.W.J. van de Ven,et al.  A mathematical approach to comparing environmental and economic goals in dairy farming on sandy soils in the Netherlands , 1996 .

[107]  L. Bergström,et al.  Definition of sustainable and unsustainable issues in nutrient management of modern agriculture , 2005 .

[108]  D. Schingoethe,et al.  Conjugated linoleic acid and other beneficial fatty acids in milk fat from cows fed soybean meal, fish meal, or both. , 2001, Journal of dairy science.

[109]  Alain Peeters,et al.  Biodiversity in intensive grasslands: effect of management, improvement and challenges , 2005 .

[110]  R. Dewhurst,et al.  Comparison of grass and legume silages for milk production. 1. Production responses with different levels of concentrate. , 2003, Journal of dairy science.

[111]  S. Malhi,et al.  Nitrogen Fertilization Effects on Quality of Organic Matter in a Grassland Soil , 2005, Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems.

[112]  T. Misselbrook,et al.  Ammonia emissions from outdoor concrete yards used by livestock- : quantification and mitigation , 2006 .

[113]  Rodolphe Sabatier,et al.  Multicriteria performance and sustainability in livestock farming systems: Functional diversity matters☆ , 2011 .

[114]  K. L. Johns,et al.  OVERSEER ® nutrient budgets – moving towards on-farm resource accounting , 2022 .

[115]  B. Cottrill,et al.  Energy and Protein Requirements of Ruminants , 1993 .

[116]  B. Cottrill,et al.  Energy and protein requirements of ruminants: an advisory manual prepared by the AFRC Technical Committee on Responses to Nutrients , 1993 .

[117]  J. Webb,et al.  Gaseous emissions from outdoor concrete yards used by livestock , 2001 .

[118]  U. Köpke,et al.  Assessment of environmental effects, animal welfare and milk quality among organic dairy farms , 2010 .

[119]  N. Halberg,et al.  Can organic farming help to reduce N-losses? , 1998, Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems.

[120]  W. Rossing,et al.  Integrating public demands into model-based design for multifunctional agriculture: An application to intensive Dutch dairy landscapes , 2008 .

[121]  Andrew Balmford,et al.  Farming and the Fate of Wild Nature , 2005, Science.

[122]  Jørgen E. Olesen,et al.  Modelling greenhouse gas emissions from European conventional and organic dairy farms , 2006 .

[123]  Frank Nevens,et al.  MOTIFS: a monitoring tool for integrated farm sustainability , 2008, Agronomy for Sustainable Development.

[124]  P. W. Moe,et al.  Methane Production in Dairy Cows , 1979 .

[125]  G. Haas,et al.  Comparing intensive, extensified and organic grassland farming in southern Germany by process life cycle assessment , 2001 .

[126]  Johannes Peterseil,et al.  The influence of land-use practices and economics on plant species richness in meadows , 2003 .

[127]  Zbigniew Nahorski,et al.  Greenhouse gas inventories , 2011 .

[128]  D. Mertens,et al.  The prediction of methane production of Holstein cows by several equations. , 1995, Journal of dairy science.

[129]  S. Giger-Reverdin,et al.  Literature survey of the influence of dietary fat composition on methane production in dairy cattle , 2003 .