Entering the era of computationally driven drug development

Abstract Historically, failure rates in drug development are high; increased sophistication and investment throughout the process has shifted the reasons for attrition, but the overall success rates have remained stubbornly and consistently low. Only 8% of new entities entering clinical testing gain regulatory approval, indicating that significant obstacles still exist for efficient therapeutic development. The continued high failure rate can be partially attributed to the inability to link drug exposure with the magnitude of observed safety and efficacy-related pharmacodynamic (PD) responses; frequently, this is a result of nonclinical models exhibiting poor prediction of human outcomes across a wide range of disease conditions, resulting in faulty evaluation of drug toxicology and efficacy. However, the increasing quality and standardization of experimental methods in preclinical stages of testing has created valuable data sets within companies that can be leveraged to further improve the efficiency and accuracy of preclinical prediction for both pharmacokinetics (PK) and PD. Models of Quantitative structure–activity relationships (QSAR), physiologically based pharmacokinetics (PBPK), and PK/PD relationships have also improved efficiency. Founded on a core understanding of biochemistry and physiological interactions of xenobiotics, these in silico methods have the potential to increase the probability of compound success in clinical trials. Integration of traditional computational methods with machine-learning approaches and existing internal pharma databases stands to make a fundamental impact on the speed and accuracy of predictions during the process of drug development and approval.