Refined-scale panel data crash rate analysis using random-effects tobit model.

Random effects tobit models are developed in predicting hourly crash rates with refined-scale panel data structure in both temporal and spatial domains. The proposed models address left-censoring effects of crash rates data while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity across groups and serial correlations within group in the meantime. The utilization of panel data in both refined temporal and spatial scales (hourly record and 1-mile roadway segments on average) exhibits strong potential on capturing the nature of time-varying and spatially varying contributing variables that is usually ignored in traditional aggregated traffic accident modeling. 1-year accident data and detailed traffic, environment, road geometry and surface condition data from a segment of I-25 in Colorado are adopted to demonstrate the proposed methodology. To better understand significantly different characteristics of crashes, two separate models, one for daytime and another for nighttime, have been developed. The results show major difference in contributing factors towards crash rate between daytime and nighttime models, implying considerable needs to investigate daytime and nighttime crashes separately using refined-scale data. After the models are developed, a comprehensive review of various contributing factors is made, followed by discussions on some interesting findings.

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