Encounter history modeling of joint mark-recapture, tag-resighting and tag-recovery data under temporary emigration

We describe a joint analysis of mark-recapture, tag-resight and tag- recovery data that directly models the encounter history of an animal. The proba- bility of the encounter history for each animal is partitioned into survival, recapture, resighting, and recovery components, and a component for the probability that the animal is never encountered again. Temporary migration enters into the likelihood through the recapture component, and movement of marked animals in and out of the area where they are subject to capture is modeled using a Markov chain. Random temporary emigration and permanent emigration are special cases. An important feature of directly modeling the encounter histories is that covariates that are specific to individuals can be included in the analysis. The model is ap- plied to a brown trout tagging data set and provides strong evidence of Markovian temporary emigration. The new model is needed to provide correct estimates of trout survival probabilities which are shown to depend on the length of the fish at first capture.

[1]  Carl J. Schwarz,et al.  Estimating migration rates using tag-recovery data , 1993 .

[2]  李幼升,et al.  Ph , 1989 .

[3]  K. Pollock.  A Capture-Recapture Design Robust to Unequal Probability of Capture , 1982 .

[4]  R. Cormack.  Estimates of survival from the sighting of marked animals , 1964 .

[5]  G. White.  ADVANCED FEATURES OF PROGRAM , 2002 .

[6]  C Brownie,et al.  A likelihood-based approach to capture-recapture estimation of demographic parameters under the robust design. , 1995, Biometrics.

[7]  James E. Hines,et al.  ESTIMATING TEMPORARY EMIGRATION USING CAPTURE-RECAPTURE DATA WITH POLLOCK'S ROBUST DESIGN , 1997 .

[8]  Kenneth H. Pollock,et al.  Assumptions of Modern Band-Recovery Models, with Emphasis on Heterogeneous Survival Rates , 1982 .

[9]  K. Burnham,et al.  Model selection: An integral part of inference , 1997 .

[10]  Richard J Barker,et al.  Open population mark-recapture models including ancillary sightings : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Statistics at Massey University , 1995 .

[11]  J. Clobert,et al.  Capture-recapture and evolutionary ecology: A difficult wedding? , 1995 .

[12]  E. A. Catchpole,et al.  Abalone I: Analyzing Mark‐Recapture‐Recovery Data Incorporating Growth and Delayed Recovery , 2001, Biometrics.

[13]  K. Burnham,et al.  Program MARK: survival estimation from populations of marked animals , 1999 .

[14]  Kenneth P. Burnham,et al.  ADVANCED FEATURES OF PROGRAM MARK , 2002 .

[15]  L. Kavalieris,et al.  Efficiency Gain from Auxiliary Data Requiring Additional Nuisance Parameters , 2001, Biometrics.

[16]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Model selection and multimodel inference : a practical information-theoretic approach , 2003 .

[17]  G. Jolly.  EXPLICIT ESTIMATES FROM CAPTURE-RECAPTURE DATA WITH BOTH DEATH AND IMMIGRATION-STOCHASTIC MODEL. , 1965, Biometrika.

[18]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Model selection and inference : a practical information-theoretic approach , 2000 .

[19]  Carl J. Schwarz,et al.  Estimation and effects of tag-misread rates in capture-recapture studies , 1999 .

[20]  R. McDowall.  New Zealand freshwater fishes: A guide and natural history , 1978 .

[21]  Kenneth H. Pollock,et al.  CAPTURE-RECAPTURE STUDIES FOR MULTIPLE STRATA INCLUDING NON-MARKOVIAN TRANSITIONS , 1993 .

[22]  G. Seber.  A NOTE ON THE MULTIPLE-RECAPTURE CENSUS. , 1965, Biometrika.

[23]  Richard J. Barker,et al.  JOINT MODELING OF LIVE-RECAPTURE, TAG-RESIGHT, AND TAG-RECOVERY DATA , 1997 .

[24]  Byron J. T. Morgan,et al.  A simultaneous survival rate analysis of dead recovery and live recapture data , 1995 .

[25]  Byron J. T. Morgan,et al.  Integrated recovery/recapture data analysis , 1998 .

[26]  James E. Hines,et al.  Additional comments on the assumption of homogenous survival rates in modern bird banding estimation models , 1982 .

[27]  Richard J. Barker,et al.  Joint analysis of mark—recapture, resighting and ring-recovery data with age-dependence and marking-effect , 1999 .

[28]  Jean-Dominique Lebreton,et al.  The future of population dynamic studies using marked individuals: A statistician's perspective , 1995 .

[29]  Richard J. Barker,et al.  Effect of heterogeneous survival on bird-banding model confidence interval coverage rates , 1992 .

[30]  G. Seber,et al.  The estimation of animal abundance and related parameters , 1974 .