Model for Estimating Increased Ridership Caused by Integration of Two Urban Transit Modes: Case Study of Metro and Bus-Minibus Transit Systems, Istanbul, Turkey

A simple, practical tool based on integration (basically, shortening) of competing bus and minibus transit services is provided for estimating increased ridership on metro lines. A simple model is developed to estimate the increased ridership in the metro line of Istanbul, Turkey (7.9 km long and being extended), caused by integration with bus and minibus transit lines, and the benefits related to the intermodal integration are presented. To estimate the effectiveness of the integration action, ridership information in all modes before and after the integration was gathered and analyzed. It was found that the ridership-over-capacity (RoC) ratio in the metro lines was quite low (0.28) before the integration. On December 24,2001, a partial integration was deployed by the bus operator of the metropolitan city when 11 bus and three minibus routes were integrated to the metro, which yielded significant increase in RoC (56%). The study also considered possible options for the development of a full intermodal pl...