Stated intentions and purchase behavior: A unified model ☆

Intentions data often contain systematic biases; intentions change over time and may not accurately predict actual purchases. Ignoring the discrepancies between intentions and purchasing can produce biased estimates of variable coefficients and biased forecasts of future demand. This study proposes a unified model that takes into account various sources of discrepancies between intentions and purchasing and forecasts purchasing probability at the individual-level by linking explanatory variables (e.g., socio-demographics, product attributes, and promotion variables) and intentions to actual purchasing. The proposed model provides an empirically better explanation of the relationship between stated intentions and purchasing and offers more accurate individual-level purchase predictions than do other existing intention models.

[1]  Frank M. Bass,et al.  Adjusting Stated Intention Measures to Predict Trial Purchase of New Products: A Comparison of Models and Methods , 1989 .

[2]  Cheng Hsiao,et al.  Modeling survey response bias – with an analysis of the demand for an advanced electronic device , 1998 .

[3]  G. Fitzsimons,et al.  THE MERE-MEASUREMENT EFFECT : WHY DOES MEASURING PURCHASE INTENTIONS CHANGE ACTUAL PURCHASE BEHAVIOR ? Revised , May 28 , 1999 , 1999 .

[4]  Dick R. Wittink,et al.  Forecasting with Conjoint Analysis , 2001 .

[5]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Predicting a changing taste: Do people know what they will like? , 1992 .

[6]  Richard T. Carson,et al.  Combining Sources of Preference Data for Modeling Complex Decision Processes , 1999 .

[7]  Sharad Borle,et al.  The Impact of Survey Participation on Subsequent Customer Behavior: An Empirical Investigation , 2007 .

[8]  Jay E. Klompmaker,et al.  Predicting Audience Exposure to Spot TV Advertising Schedules , 1977 .

[9]  S. Feldman,et al.  A Simple Theory of the Survey Response: Answering Questions versus Revealing Preferences , 1992 .

[10]  G. Fitzsimons,et al.  The Mere-Measurement Effect: Why Does Measuring Intentions Change Actual Behavior? , 2004 .

[11]  R. Bagozzi,et al.  Antecedents and purchase consequences of customer participation in small group brand communities , 2006 .

[12]  P. Gollwitzer.  Implementation intentions: Strong effects of simple plans. , 1999 .

[13]  Michael D. Geurts,et al.  New Product Forecasting with a Purchase Intention Survey , 1993 .

[14]  Vicki G. Morwitz,et al.  When Do Purchase Intentions Predict Sales? , 2006 .

[15]  Wayne S. DeSarbo,et al.  The Stochastic Modeling of Purchase Intentions and Behavior , 1998 .

[16]  Alan R. Andreasen,et al.  Cheap but Good Marketing Research , 1988 .

[17]  Vicki G. Morwitz,et al.  The Effect of Measuring Intent on Brand-Level Purchase Behavior , 1996 .

[18]  W. DeSarbo,et al.  Finite-Mixture Structural Equation Models for Response-Based Segmentation and Unobserved Heterogeneity , 1997 .

[19]  J. Krosnick.  Response strategies for coping with the cognitive demands of attitude measures in surveys , 1991 .

[20]  Maria Elena Sanchez,et al.  PROBING “DONT KNOW” ANSWERS: EFFECTS ON SURVEY ESTIMATES AND VARIABLE RELATIONSHIPS , 1992 .

[21]  Murphy A. Sewall.  Market Segmentation Based on Consumer Ratings of Proposed Product Designs , 1978 .

[22]  G. Urban,et al.  Pre-Test-Market Evaluation of New Packaged Goods: A Model and Measurement Methodology , 1978 .

[23]  R. Bagozzi.  Principles of marketing research , 1994 .

[24]  Gary J. Russell,et al.  A Probabilistic Choice Model for Market Segmentation and Elasticity Structure , 1989 .

[25]  Blair H. Sheppard,et al.  The Theory of Reasoned Action: A Meta-Analysis of Past Research with Recommendations for Modifications and Future Research , 1988 .

[26]  D. Hensher,et al.  Stated Choice Methods: Analysis and Applications , 2000 .

[27]  Gabriele Oettingen,et al.  Implementation Intentions , 2019, Encyclopedia of Behavioral Medicine.

[28]  Vicki G. Morwitz,et al.  Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy? , 2000 .

[29]  Werner Reinartz,et al.  The Short- and Long-Term Effects of Measuring Intent to Repurchase , 2004 .

[30]  I. Ajzen,et al.  Belief, Attitude, Intention, and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research , 1977 .

[31]  Vicki G. Morwitz,et al.  Using Segmentation to Improve Sales Forecasts Based on Purchase Intent: Which “Intenders” Actually Buy? , 1992 .

[32]  Vicki G. Morwitz,et al.  Does Measuring Intent Change Behavior , 1993 .

[33]  Albert C. Bemmaor,et al.  Predicting Behavior from Intention-to-Buy Measures: The Parametric Case , 1995 .

[34]  Robert Cameron Mitchell,et al.  The Impact of "No Opinion" Response Options on Data Quality: Non-Attitude Reduction or an Invitation to Satisfice? , 2001 .

[35]  John R. Hauser,et al.  Design and marketing of new products , 1980 .

[36]  J. Scott Armstrong,et al.  Principles of forecasting : a handbook for researchers and practitioners , 2001 .

[37]  Raul A. Pinel,et al.  Theory of Reasoned Action , 2007 .

[38]  Vicki G. Morwitz,et al.  The role of stated intentions in new product purchase forecasting , 2002 .

[39]  Jeffrey W. Sherman,et al.  The functional independence of trait and behavioral self-knowledge: Methodological considerations and new empirical findings , 1997 .

[40]  Wagner A. Kamakura,et al.  Measuring Consumer Attitudes toward the Marketplace with Tailored Interviews , 1989 .

[41]  Wiebke Kuklys,et al.  Stated choice methods: analysis and application, Jordan J. Louviere, David A. Hensher and Joffre D. Swait, Cambridge University Press, ISBN: 0-521-78830-7 , 2002 .

[42]  Philip Hans Franses,et al.  Combining Revealed and Stated Preferences to Forecast Customer Behaviour: Three Case Studies , 2002 .

[43]  Glen L. Urban,et al.  Pre-Test-Market Models: Validation and Managerial Implications , 1983 .

[44]  Shirley Taylor,et al.  Decomposition and crossover effects in the theory of planned behavior: A study of consumer adoption intentions , 1995 .

[45]  Kent D. Nassen,et al.  Representation of measurement error in marketing variables: Review of approaches and extension to three-facet designs , 1998 .

[46]  R. Bagozzi,et al.  Goal Setting and Goal Striving in Consumer Behavior , 1999 .

[47]  Sachin Gupta,et al.  An empirical analysis of consumer durable replacement intentions , 1992 .

[48]  Vicki G. Morwitz,et al.  Do Intentions Really Predict Behavior? Self-Generated Validity Effects in Survey Research , 2005 .

[49]  William J. Infosino,et al.  Forecasting New Product Sales from Likelihood of Purchase Ratings , 1986 .

[50]  D. G. Morrison.  Purchase Intentions and Purchase Behavior , 1979 .