Institutional Trading and Stock Returns

In this study, we explore the dynamics of the relation between institutional trading and stock returns. We find that stock returns Granger-cause institutional trading (especially purchases) on a quarterly basis. The robust and significant causality from equity returns to institutional trading can be largely explained by the time-series variation of market returns, that is, institutions buy more popular stocks after market rises. Stock returns appear to be negatively related to lagged institutional trading. An analysis of the behavior of trading and the returns of the traded stocks reveals evidence that stocks with heavy institutional buying (selling) experience positive (negative) excess returns over the previous 12 months.

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