Scenarios for a cap beyond 2013; Implications for EU27 agriculture and the cap budget

An ex ante analysis of a set of five policy components (proposed post 2013 CAP measures) has been carried out for the 2014-2020 period, based on the EC Communication The CAP towards 2020 of 18 November 2010. The policy components are defined in such a way that they focus on the contribution of farmers to biodiversity as a public good. The consequences for the distribution of the CAP budget for the period 2014-2020 over EU Member States in the three scenarios are modelled by using the LEI budget model, whereas the shifts in production and income in EU agriculture are modelled by using the regionalised agricultural sector model CAPRI. This report gives background information especially related to the socialeconomic aspects of the overall report by the Environmental Assessment Agency. Model calculations with CAPRI show that the five policy components have sizeable market and income redistribution effects.