Potentially dangerous consequences for biodiversity of solar geoengineering implementation and termination

Solar geoengineering is receiving increased policy attention as a potential tool to offset climate warming. While climate responses to geoengineering have been studied in detail, the potential biodiversity consequences are largely unknown. To avoid extinction, species must either adapt or move to track shifting climates. Here, we assess the effects of the rapid implementation, continuation and sudden termination of geoengineering on climate velocities—the speeds and directions that species would need to move to track changes in climate. Compared to a moderate climate change scenario (RCP4.5), rapid geoengineering implementation reduces temperature velocities towards zero in terrestrial biodiversity hotspots. In contrast, sudden termination increases both ocean and land temperature velocities to unprecedented speeds (global medians >10 km yr−1) that are more than double the temperature velocities for recent and future climate change in global biodiversity hotspots. Furthermore, as climate velocities more than double in speed, rapid climate fragmentation occurs in biomes such as temperate grasslands and forests where temperature and precipitation velocity vectors diverge spatially by >90°. Rapid geoengineering termination would significantly increase the threats to biodiversity from climate change.Geoengineering is a potential strategy to offset the effects of climate change. Using climate velocities to predict the effects on biodiversity shows particular risk from the abrupt termination of geoengineering.

[1]  Brett R. Scheffers,et al.  Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being , 2017, Science.

[2]  P. Holgate,et al.  Matrix Population Models. , 1990 .

[3]  Shingo Watanabe,et al.  The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) , 2013 .

[4]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment , 2010, Nature.

[5]  D. MacMartin,et al.  Studying geoengineering with natural and anthropogenic analogs , 2013, Climatic Change.

[6]  Carrie A. Schloss,et al.  Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[7]  Brian Zambri,et al.  The G4Foam Experiment: global climate impacts of regional ocean albedo modification , 2016 .

[8]  Michael J. Fogarty,et al.  Marine Taxa Track Local Climate Velocities , 2013, Science.

[9]  K. Taylor,et al.  The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) , 2011 .

[10]  Simone Tilmes,et al.  Impacts of stratospheric sulfate geoengineering on tropospheric ozone , 2017 .

[11]  O. Boucher,et al.  Geoengineering by stratospheric SO 2 injection: results from the Met Office HadGEM2 climate model and comparison with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE , 2010 .

[12]  B. Spagnolo,et al.  THE ROLE OF THE INITIAL CONDITIONS ON THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE ESCAPE TIME IN UNSTABLE STATES , 2001 .

[13]  Rebecca K. Smith,et al.  Key impacts of climate engineering on biodiversity and ecosystems, with priorities for future research , 2016 .

[14]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C , 2013 .

[15]  Ryan R. Neely,et al.  Stratospheric sulfate geoengineering could enhance the terrestrial photosynthesis rate , 2016 .

[16]  Franklin B. Schwing,et al.  The Pace of Shifting Climate in Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems , 2011, Science.

[17]  Robert K. Colwell,et al.  Assessing the threat to montane biodiversity from discordant shifts in temperature and precipitation in a changing climate. , 2011, Ecology letters.

[18]  M. England,et al.  Effects of volcanism on tropical variability , 2015 .

[19]  R. Corlett,et al.  Will plant movements keep up with climate change? , 2013, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[20]  C. Field,et al.  The velocity of climate change , 2009, Nature.

[21]  P. Crutzen.  Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution to Resolve a Policy Dilemma? , 2006 .

[22]  M. Mills,et al.  Asia Treads the Nuclear Path, Unaware That Self-Assured Destruction Would Result from Nuclear War , 2017, The Journal of Asian Studies.

[23]  Yuan Gao,et al.  Chemical composition and size distributions of coastal aerosols observed on the US East Coast , 2010 .

[24]  G. Powell,et al.  Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World: A New Map of Life on Earth , 2001 .

[25]  Jesse L. Reynolds,et al.  The International Politics of Climate Engineering: A Review and Prospectus for International Relations , 2015 .

[26]  Camilo Mora,et al.  The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability , 2013, Nature.

[27]  Takanobu Kosugi,et al.  The Asia-Pacific’s role in the emerging solar geoengineering debate , 2017, Climatic Change.

[28]  M. Mills,et al.  Global Famine after a Regional Nuclear War , 2014 .

[29]  A. Robock.  Volcanic eruptions and climate , 2000 .

[30]  R. Caballero,et al.  ENSO response to high‐latitude volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere: The role of the initial conditions , 2016 .

[31]  R. Huey,et al.  Putting the Heat on Tropical Animals , 2008, Science.

[32]  Yuan Gao,et al.  Characterization of trace elements in PM2.5 aerosols in the vicinity of highways in northeast New Jersey in the U.S. east coast , 2011 .

[33]  David William Keith,et al.  A temporary, moderate and responsive scenario for solar geoengineering , 2015 .

[34]  D. Victor.  On the regulation of geoengineering , 2008 .

[35]  R. Turco,et al.  How an India-Pakistan nuclear war could start—and have global consequences , 2019, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

[36]  D. Weisenstein,et al.  Stratospheric solar geoengineering without ozone loss , 2016, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[37]  Andrew S. Jones,et al.  Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall , 2013 .

[38]  A. Robock,et al.  Rapid Expansion of Nuclear Arsenals by Pakistan and India Threatens Regional and Global Catastrophes , 2018 .

[39]  W. Cramer,et al.  A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate , 1992 .

[40]  P. Cox,et al.  Coral bleaching under unconventional scenarios of climate warming and ocean acidification , 2015 .

[41]  M. Cochrane.  Fire science for rainforests , 2003, Nature.

[42]  R. Ohlemüller,et al.  Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming , 2011, Science.

[43]  J. Randerson,et al.  El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in Southeast Asia , 2012, Nature climate change.

[44]  Richard P. Turco,et al.  Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe , 2019, Science Advances.

[45]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century , 2003 .

[46]  D. Hartmann.  Global Physical Climatology , 1994 .

[47]  P. Irvine,et al.  Five solar geoengineering tropes that have outstayed their welcome , 2016 .

[48]  D. Janzen.  Why Mountain Passes are Higher in the Tropics , 1967, The American Naturalist.

[49]  William J. Sydeman,et al.  Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity , 2014, Nature.

[50]  Georgiy L. Stenchikov,et al.  Regional climate responses to geoengineering with tropical and Arctic SO2 injections , 2008 .

[51]  Paul R. Martin,et al.  Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[52]  Steven J. Smith,et al.  Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering , 2017 .

[53]  R. Whittaker.  Communities and Ecosystems , 1975 .

[54]  Alejandro Ordonez,et al.  Mapping climatic mechanisms likely to favour the emergence of novel communities , 2016 .

[55]  R. G. Davies,et al.  The Influence of Late Quaternary Climate-Change Velocity on Species Endemism , 2011, Science.

[56]  A. Robock,et al.  Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on rice production in Mainland China , 2012, Climatic Change.

[57]  Jay Apt,et al.  The Geoengineering Option , 2009 .

[58]  Shingo Watanabe,et al.  Solar radiation management impacts on agriculture in China: A case study in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) , 2014 .

[59]  Decadal reduction of Chinese agriculture after a regional nuclear war , 2015 .

[60]  P. Jones,et al.  Updated high‐resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset , 2014 .