Bayesian Methods for Bounding Single-Event Related Risk in Low-Cost Satellite Missions

Adapting conventional SEE hardness assurance approaches to low-cost, risk tolerant missions has proven difficult. Such approaches do not have a natural approach for realizing cost savings for increased risk tolerance. We develop single-event-risk prior probability distributions based on historical and heritage data. The Priors can be used to bound SEE risk for testing, part selection and design. By adjusting the desired confidence and success probability for the prior, one can tailor it to the risk tolerance of the mission.