Influence diagrams with multiple objectives and tradeoff analysis

Influence diagrams have been important models for decision problems because of their ability to both model a problem rigorously at its mathematical level and depict its high-level structure graphically. Once the structure and numerical details of an influence diagram have been specified, it can be evaluated to determine the optimal decision policy. However, when evaluating multiple objectives, in the past this determination was based on the assumption that utility functions that commensurate the objectives are available. This paper extends the structure and solution algorithm for influence diagrams to allow for the inclusion of noncommensurate objectives using multiobjective tradeoff analysis instead of utility theory. This eliminates the need to specify any preference information before the influence diagram is solved. The proposed multiobjective-based methodology is also useful for decision makers who either do not want to accept the assumptions of utility theory for a particular problem, or are confronted with a problem in which it is neither practical nor viable to construct a utility function. Additionally, this paper establishes the relationship between multiobjective influence diagrams and multiobjective decision trees. This relationship is important because it allows a decisionmaker to utilize the advantages of both representations. An example problem is presented to introduce both the extended multiobjective influence diagram methodology and the relationship linking multiobjective decision trees to multiobjective influence diagrams.

[1]  Sean R Eddy,et al.  What is dynamic programming? , 2004, Nature Biotechnology.

[2]  Ze-Nian Li,et al.  Pyramid Vision Using Key Features to Integrate Image-Driven Bottom-Up and Model-Driven Top-Down Processes , 1987, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[3]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  The Envelope Approach for Multiobjective Optimization Problems , 1985 .

[4]  Concha Bielza,et al.  A Comparison of Graphical Techniques for Asymmetric Decision Problems , 1999 .

[5]  C. Goutis A graphical method for solving a decision analysis problem , 1995, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern..

[6]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Influence Diagrams , 2005, Decis. Anal..

[7]  Ross D. Shachter,et al.  Dynamic programming and influence diagrams , 1990, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern..

[8]  G. W. Evans,et al.  An Overview of Techniques for Solving Multiobjective Mathematical Programs , 1984 .

[9]  Craig W. Kirkwood An algebraic approach to formulating and solving large models for sequential decisions under uncertainty , 1993 .

[10]  Y. Haimes,et al.  Multiobjectives in water resource systems analysis: The Surrogate Worth Trade Off Method , 1974 .

[11]  Prakash P. Shenoy,et al.  Valuation network representation and solution of asymmetric decision problems , 2000, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[12]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Risk modeling, assessment, and management , 1998 .

[13]  James E. Smith,et al.  Structuring Conditional Relationships in Influence Diagrams , 1993, Oper. Res..

[14]  Jonathan F. Bard,et al.  Recent developments in screening methods for nondominated solutions in multiobjective optimization , 1992, Comput. Oper. Res..

[15]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Multiobjective Decision Making: Theory and Methodology , 1983 .

[16]  Ross D. Shachter Evaluating Influence Diagrams , 1986, Oper. Res..

[17]  H. Raiffa,et al.  Decisions with Multiple Objectives , 1993 .

[18]  Y. Haimes,et al.  The envelope approach for multiobjeetive optimization problems , 1987, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[19]  Yacov Y. Haimes,et al.  Multiobjective Decision‐Tree Analysis , 1990 .

[20]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Influence Diagram Retrospective , 2005, Decis. Anal..

[21]  H. Simon Rational Decision Making in Business Organizations , 1978 .

[22]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis , 1989 .

[23]  Alice M. Agogino,et al.  Management of Uncertainty , 1991, UAI.

[24]  Scott M. Olmsted On representing and solving decision problems , 1983 .

[25]  Duan Li Multiple objectives and non-separability in stochastic dynamic programming , 1990 .