Intraseasonal and Interdecadal Jet Shifts in the Northern Hemisphere: The Role of Warm Pool Tropical Convection and Sea Ice

AbstractThis study uses cluster analysis to investigate the interdecadal poleward shift of the subtropical and eddy-driven jets and its relationship to intraseasonal teleconnections. For this purpose, self-organizing map (SOM) analysis is applied to the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) zonal-mean zonal wind. The resulting SOM patterns have time scales of 4.8–5.7 days and undergo notable interdecadal trends in their frequency of occurrence. The sum of these trends closely resembles the observed interdecadal trend of the subtropical and eddy-driven jets, indicating that much of the interdecadal climate forcing is manifested through changes in the frequency of intraseasonal teleconnection patterns.Two classes of jet cluster patterns are identified. The first class of SOM pattern is preceded by anomalies in convection over the warm pool followed by changes in the poleward wave activity flux. The second class of patterns is preceded by sea ice and stratospheric polar vortex anomalies; when the Arctic se...

[1]  Bruno Tremblay,et al.  The Continuum of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns and a Description of the NAO Shift with the Use of Self-Organizing Maps , 2008 .

[2]  Brian J. Hoskins,et al.  The Steady Linear Response of a Spherical Atmosphere to Thermal and Orographic Forcing , 1981 .

[3]  Changhyun Yoo,et al.  Observed connection between stratospheric sudden warmings and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation , 2012 .

[4]  S. Feldstein,et al.  The Impact of ENSO on Wave Breaking and Southern Annular Mode Events , 2010 .

[5]  Paul J. Kushner,et al.  Tropospheric response to stratospheric perturbations in a relatively simple general circulation model , 2002 .

[6]  J. Cohen,et al.  Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation , 2012 .

[7]  G. Rivière.  A Dynamical Interpretation of the Poleward Shift of the Jet Streams in Global Warming Scenarios , 2011 .

[8]  V. Petoukhov,et al.  A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents , 2010 .

[9]  Q. Fu,et al.  Poleward Shift of Subtropical Jets Inferred from Satellite-Observed Lower-Stratospheric Temperatures , 2011 .

[10]  C. Garfinkel,et al.  The Effect of Tropospheric Jet Latitude on Coupling between the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and the Troposphere , 2012 .

[11]  Sukyoung Lee,et al.  The impact of meridonal wind shear on baroclinic life cycle , 2013, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences.

[12]  Sukyoung Lee,et al.  Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific , 2013 .

[13]  S. Feldstein,et al.  Two Types of Baroclinic Life Cycles during the Southern Hemisphere Summer , 2009 .

[14]  J. Bader,et al.  Impact of a projected future Arctic Sea Ice reduction on extratropical storminess and the NAO , 2009 .

[15]  Sukyoung Lee,et al.  Is the Atmospheric Zonal Index Driven by an Eddy Feedback , 1998 .

[16]  D. Hartmann,et al.  Eddy–Zonal Flow Feedback in the Northern Hemisphere Winter , 2003 .

[17]  D. Frierson,et al.  Phase Speed Spectra and the Latitude of Surface Westerlies: Interannual Variability and Global Warming Trend , 2008 .

[18]  J. Singarayer,et al.  Twenty-First-Century Climate Impacts from a Declining Arctic Sea Ice Cover , 2006 .

[19]  P. Kushner,et al.  The Role of Linear Interference in Northern Annular Mode Variability Associated with Eurasian Snow Cover Extent , 2011 .

[20]  P. Kushner,et al.  Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling in a Relatively Simple AGCM: The Role of Eddies , 2004 .

[21]  L. Polvani,et al.  Annular mode time scales in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report models , 2008 .

[22]  Dana E. Veron,et al.  Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea‐ice extent , 2009 .

[23]  Jeffrey H. Yin,et al.  A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate , 2005 .

[24]  C. Franzke,et al.  The continuum and dynamics of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns , 2005 .

[25]  S. Feldstein,et al.  Detecting Ozone- and Greenhouse Gas–Driven Wind Trends with Observational Data , 2013, Science.

[26]  Josefino C. Comiso,et al.  Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover , 2008 .

[27]  Q. Fu,et al.  Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979 , 2007 .

[28]  C. Strong,et al.  The Winter Atmospheric Response to Sea Ice Anomalies in the Barents Sea , 2014 .

[29]  M. Blackburn,et al.  The Role of Eddies in Driving the Tropospheric Response to Stratospheric Heating Perturbations , 2009 .

[30]  D. Pollard,et al.  On the Possible Link between Tropical Convection and the Northern Hemisphere Arctic Surface Air Temperature Change between 1958 and 2001 , 2011 .

[31]  Sukyoung Lee,et al.  The Response of Westerly Jets to Thermal Driving in a Primitive Equation Model , 2005 .

[32]  S. Yamane,et al.  Influence of low Arctic sea‐ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters , 2009 .

[33]  Q. Fu,et al.  Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979 , 2007 .

[34]  C. Deser,et al.  The Effects of North Atlantic SST and Sea Ice Anomalies on the Winter Circulation in CCM3. Part II: Direct and Indirect Components of the Response , 2004 .

[35]  R. Heikes,et al.  The Steady-State Atmospheric Circulation Response to Climate Change–like Thermal Forcings in a Simple General Circulation Model , 2010 .

[36]  Muyin Wang,et al.  Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice , 2010 .

[37]  C. Deser,et al.  The Transient Atmospheric Circulation Response to North Atlantic SST and Sea Ice Anomalies , 2007 .

[38]  J. Thepaut,et al.  The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system , 2011 .

[39]  G. Vallis,et al.  Can the Increase in the Eddy Length Scale under Global Warming Cause the Poleward Shift of the Jet Streams , 2011 .

[40]  S. Feldstein.  The Recent Trend and Variance Increase of the Annular Mode , 2002 .

[41]  Eric DeWeaver,et al.  Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations , 2007 .

[42]  G. Magnusdottir,et al.  Response of the Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation to Current and Projected Arctic Sea Ice Decline: A Numerical Study with CAM5 , 2014 .

[43]  Nathaniel C. Johnson,et al.  The Continuum of North Pacific Sea Level Pressure Patterns: Intraseasonal, Interannual, and Interdecadal Variability , 2009 .

[44]  A. Oort,et al.  Observed Interannual Variability in the Hadley Circulation and Its Connection to ENSO , 1996 .

[45]  David M. Lawrence,et al.  The Seasonal Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Late Twenty-First Century , 2010 .

[46]  G. Vallis,et al.  A robust increase in the eddy length scale in the simulation of future climates , 2010 .

[47]  R. Seager,et al.  Mechanisms of Hemispherically Symmetric Climate Variability , 2003 .

[48]  Teuvo Kohonen,et al.  Self-Organizing Maps , 2010 .

[49]  D. Frierson,et al.  Response of the Zonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation to El Niño versus Global Warming , 2007 .

[50]  Seok,et al.  The Response of Westerly Jets to Thermal Driving in a Primitive Equation Model , 2005 .

[51]  D. Hartmann,et al.  Tropospheric Precursors of Anomalous Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortices , 2009 .

[52]  J. Curry,et al.  Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[53]  J. Wallace,et al.  Annular Modes in the Extratropical Circulation. Part I: Month-to-Month Variability* , 2000 .

[54]  B. Hoskins,et al.  Two paradigms of baroclinic‐wave life‐cycle behaviour , 1993 .

[55]  Yucheng Song,et al.  Dynamical Mechanisms for Stratospheric Influences on the Troposphere. , 2004 .

[56]  C. L. Archer,et al.  Historical trends in the jet streams , 2008 .

[57]  Qiang Fu,et al.  Enhanced Mid-Latitude Tropospheric Warming in Satellite Measurements , 2006, Science.

[58]  D. Hartmann,et al.  Eddy–Zonal Flow Feedback in the Southern Hemisphere , 2001 .