Individual and Organizational Influences to the Use of Fire and Fuels Research by Federal Agency Managers

The Cramer Fire of 2003 resulted in the tragic deaths of two firefighters, and there has been no shortage of debate and controversies since. However, the Cramer Fire also offers some powerful lessons, particularly in the breakdown of rational thinking and decisionmaking in a rapidly-changing fire environment. The final 20 minutes at H-2 can provide important insights and lessons in this realm. Additional keywords: Cramer Fire, acceleration, decision gates, sensemaking. Introduction Humans tend to be linear thinkers, not readily able to think in an exponential fashion or effectively "multi-task" (Putnam, 2007). In volatile, extreme burning conditions in steep terrain, the immediate fire environment changes rapidly, and the rate of spread has actually been shown to accelerate exponentially during a fire’s final run (Viegas, 2005). In this situation, fire spread can intensify far more quickly than people’s perceptions and cognitions can readily reconcile, making it difficult for someone immersed in this environment to accurately assess a rapidly-changing situation and take appropriate actions. As conditions deteriorate and fire spread accelerates, rational thinking also deteriorates. Perceptions, cognitions, emotional reactions, and judgments that would be appropriate under normal circumstances fall short. “Sensemaking,” the interpretation by an individual of the surrounding environment and events, begins collapsing and complex analysis and decisionmaking are hampered. Increasing stress from the situation causes the individual to fall back on simpler, previously-learned behaviors that may not apply to the new environment (Zeigler, 2006; Weick, 1993). Methods An examination of the events during the final 20 minutes at H-2 on the Cramer Fire, and the communications between H-2 and the helibase, builds a compelling and powerful story. Though all the facts will never be known, interpretation of evidence, events and communications, through known human factors on past fatality fires, indicate a strong interaction of deteriorating cognitive processes and critical actions against a backdrop of a volatile, rapidlychanging environment (Close, 2006). Once fire was established in the bottom of the canyon below where the two firefighters were working, and as it moved up the drainage, it accelerated significantly. The final estimated rate of spread was two to three times the initial rate (Donoghue et al., 2003). The firefighters were not in a position where they could monitor the fire's progress effectively, and likely did not receive any other information indicating the fire's spread rate was accelerating. Based on the consistently calm tone of voice in the radio transmissions from H-2 to the helibase in the final 20 minutes, it's likely they didn't perceive they were in