Long Term Prospectives of Emerging Energy Technologies

Reducing the flow of greenhouse gas emissions to stabilize the stock of greenhouse gases, especially in the context of an expanding global economy, require substantial changes in global energy technology mix. Future technology change will come in form of technologies expected to mature in the near or distant future and technologies not yet known. Endogenous technological change has been introduced in strategic energy analysis since about the mid 1990s by implementing so-called energy technology learning rates, which specify the quantitative relationship between the cumulative experience of a given technology and the cost reductions. Emerging technologies typically evolve through several stages of development. A topical question is how technologies pass from one stage of development to another. The possible changes in the cost trends of emerging technologies can be assessed by different but complementary approaches. In this report, basing on recent empirical data the long time perspectives of emerging energy technology progress will be scrutinized. An analysis of the technical factors was carried out to identify future barriers that can lead to discontinuities in the slope of experience curves. A comparativ analysis was presented at different stages of development including a range of contributing parameters to the learning rate changes. The role of underlying industry characteristics was outlined as well. The cross analysis of the major sources of historical cost reductions for more mature technologies also provides insights to the future cost reduction opportunities.