Sea surface temperature variability: patterns and mechanisms.

Patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability on interannual and longer timescales result from a combination of atmospheric and oceanic processes. These SST anomaly patterns may be due to intrinsic modes of atmospheric circulation variability that imprint themselves upon the SST field mainly via surface energy fluxes. Examples include SST fluctuations in the Southern Ocean associated with the Southern Annular Mode, a tripolar pattern of SST anomalies in the North Atlantic associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and a pan-Pacific mode known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (with additional contributions from oceanic processes). They may also result from coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the tropical Indo-Pacific, the tropical Atlantic Niño, and the cross-equatorial meridional modes in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. Finally, patterns of SST variability may arise from intrinsic oceanic modes, notably the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

[1]  James W. Hurrell,et al.  North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation , 2009 .

[2]  Michael Ghil,et al.  El Ni�o on the Devil's Staircase: Annual Subharmonic Steps to Chaos , 1994, Science.

[3]  S. Feldstein The Timescale, Power Spectra, and Climate Noise Properties of Teleconnection Patterns , 2000 .

[4]  D. Pozo-Vázquez,et al.  The Association between ENSO and Winter Atmospheric Circulation and Temperature in the North Atlantic Region , 2001 .

[5]  Stephen E. Zebiak Air–Sea Interaction in the Equatorial Atlantic Region , 1993 .

[6]  D. E. Harrison,et al.  The COADS Sea Level Pressure Signal: A Near-Global El Niño Composite and Time Series View, 1946–1993 , 1996 .

[7]  Michael D. Dettinger,et al.  El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Streamflow Variability Associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation , 2000 .

[8]  Prashant D. Sardeshmukh,et al.  The Optimal Growth of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies , 1995 .

[9]  Clara Deser,et al.  Surface Climate Variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during Winter: 1900–1989 , 1993 .

[10]  Daniel R. Cayan,et al.  Latent and sensible heat flux anomalies over the northern oceans : driving the sea surface temperature , 1992 .

[11]  R A Kerr,et al.  A North Atlantic Climate Pacemaker for the Centuries , 2000, Science.

[12]  Andrew P. Morse,et al.  DEVELOPMENT OF A EUROPEAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM FOR SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION (DEMETER) , 2004 .

[13]  T. Yamagata,et al.  Experimental Forecasts of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using a Coupled OAGCM , 2007 .

[14]  B. Guan,et al.  Analysis of Atlantic SST Variability Factoring Interbasin Links and the Secular Trend: Clarified Structure of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation , 2009 .

[15]  S. Xie,et al.  Structure and Mechanisms of South Indian Ocean Climate Variability , 2002 .

[16]  Jonathan M. Gregory,et al.  Changing spatial structure of the thermohaline circulation in response to atmospheric CO2 forcing in a climate model , 1999, Nature.

[17]  D. Battisti,et al.  A Linear Stochastic Dynamical Model of ENSO. Part II: Analysis. , 2001 .

[18]  M. Kimoto,et al.  Atmosphere‐ocean thermal coupling in the North Atlantic: A positive feedback , 2000 .

[19]  Nathaniel C. Johnson,et al.  The Continuum of North Pacific Sea Level Pressure Patterns: Intraseasonal, Interannual, and Interdecadal Variability , 2009 .

[20]  D. Battisti,et al.  Interannual (ENSO) and Interdecadal (ENSO-like) Variability in the Southern Hemisphere Tropospheric Circulation* , 1999 .

[21]  S. Pond,et al.  Introductory Dynamical Oceanography , 1983 .

[22]  B. Guan,et al.  Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures in the Twentieth Century: An Evolution-Centric Analysis of Variability and Trend , 2007 .

[23]  B. Goswami,et al.  A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean , 1999, Nature.

[24]  J. Namias,et al.  Further studies of temporal coherence in North Pacific Sea surface temperatures , 1974 .

[25]  J. Peixoto,et al.  Physics of climate , 1984 .

[26]  M. England,et al.  Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Feedback in the Southern Annular Mode , 2007 .

[27]  J. Curry,et al.  Encyclopedia of atmospheric sciences , 2002 .

[28]  John M. Wallace,et al.  Large-scale atmospheric circulation features of warm and cold episodes in the tropical Pacific , 1990 .

[29]  J. Wallace,et al.  ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900–93 , 1997 .

[30]  R. Greatbatch,et al.  Multidecadal Thermohaline Circulation Variability Driven by Atmospheric Surface Flux Forcing , 2000 .

[31]  Francis A. Carey,et al.  Structure and Mechanisms , 1984 .

[32]  Yan Du,et al.  Indian Ocean Capacitor Effect on Indo–Western Pacific Climate during the Summer following El Niño , 2009 .

[33]  James W. Hurrell,et al.  The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact , 2003 .

[34]  James W. Hurrell,et al.  Global Sea Surface Temperature Analyses: Multiple Problems and Their Implications for Climate Analysis, Modeling, and Reanalysis , 1999 .

[35]  Mark A. Cane,et al.  A study of self-excited oscillations of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system , 1990 .

[36]  R. Saravanan,et al.  Oceanic Forcing of Sahel Rainfall on Interannual to Interdecadal Time Scales , 2003, Science.

[37]  Robert F. Cahalan,et al.  Sampling Errors in the Estimation of Empirical Orthogonal Functions , 1982 .

[38]  L. Mysak,et al.  Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Variability in the South Atlantic , 1997 .

[39]  Ping Chang,et al.  Chaotic dynamics versus stochastic processes in El Nin˜o-Southern Oscillation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models , 1996 .

[40]  Mathew Barlow,et al.  ENSO, Pacific Decadal Variability, and U.S. Summertime Precipitation, Drought, and Stream Flow , 2001 .

[41]  D. Battisti,et al.  Dynamics and Thermodynamics of a Warming Event in a Coupled Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean Model , 1988 .

[42]  David W. Pierce,et al.  Distinguishing coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions from background noise in the North Pacific , 2001 .

[43]  James D. Scott,et al.  The Role of Ekman Ocean Heat Transport in the Northern Hemisphere Response to ENSO , 2008 .

[44]  Michael E. Schlesinger,et al.  An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years , 1994, Nature.

[45]  C. Deser,et al.  Pacific Interdecadal Climate Variability: Linkages between the Tropics and the North Pacific during Boreal Winter since 1900 , 2004 .

[46]  David L. T. Anderson,et al.  Decadal Climate Variability , 1996 .

[47]  J. Marshall,et al.  A Diagnostic Study of the Role of Remote Forcing in Tropical Atlantic Variability. , 2002 .

[48]  J. Wallace,et al.  A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production , 1997 .

[49]  M. Alexander,et al.  Atmospheric bridge, oceanic tunnel, and global climatic teleconnections , 2007 .

[50]  Shang-Ping Xie,et al.  Indian Ocean circulation and climate variability , 2009 .

[51]  D. Battisti,et al.  A Linear Stochastic Dynamical Model of ENSO. Part I: Model Development , 2000 .

[52]  T. Yamagata,et al.  Decadal Climate Variability in the North Pacific during the Recent Decades , 1997 .

[53]  K. Hasselmann,et al.  Stochastic climate models , Part I 1 Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability , 2010 .

[54]  Bruce D. Cornuelle,et al.  The Forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation , 2005 .

[55]  G. Marshall Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from Observations and Reanalyses , 2003 .

[56]  G. Vallis Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics: Fundamentals and Large-Scale Circulation , 2017 .

[57]  D. E. Harrison,et al.  El Niño‐Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature and wind anomalies, 1946–1993 , 1998 .

[58]  C. Deser,et al.  A Mechanism for the Recurrence of Wintertime Midlatitude SST Anomalies , 1995 .

[59]  Andrew M. Moore,et al.  Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation , 1999 .

[60]  S. Power,et al.  Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia , 1999 .

[61]  John M. Wallace,et al.  A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature , 2008, Nature.

[62]  R. Seager,et al.  Forced and Internal Twentieth-Century SST Trends in the North Atlantic* , 2009 .

[63]  Bunmei Taguchi,et al.  Decadal Variability of the Kuroshio Extension: Observations and an Eddy-Resolving Model Hindcast* , 2006 .

[64]  J. Geller,et al.  Genetic perspectives on marine biological invasions. , 2010, Annual review of marine science.

[65]  S. Xie,et al.  Tropical Atlantic Variability: Patterns, Mechanisms, and Impacts , 2013 .

[66]  M. Tippett,et al.  Pacific meridional mode and El Niño—Southern Oscillation , 2007 .

[67]  S. Xie,et al.  Climate Fluctuations of Tropical Coupled Systems—The Role of Ocean Dynamics , 2006 .

[68]  H. Storch,et al.  Statistical Analysis in Climate Research , 2000 .

[69]  Max J. Suarez,et al.  Vacillations in a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model , 1988 .

[70]  R. Reynolds,et al.  Testing a Dynamical Model for Mid-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies , 1983 .

[71]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures , 1998 .

[72]  Shoshiro Minobe,et al.  A 50–70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America , 1997 .

[73]  J. Marshall,et al.  A Study of the Interaction of the North Atlantic Oscillation with Ocean Circulation , 2001 .

[74]  S. Xie,et al.  A pan‐Atlantic decadal climate oscillation , 1998 .

[75]  Harry H. Hendon,et al.  Surface and Subsurface Dipole Variability in the Indian Ocean and Its Relation with ENSO , 2004 .

[76]  J. Wallace,et al.  Annular Modes in the Extratropical Circulation. Part I: Month-to-Month Variability* , 2000 .

[77]  Hisashi Nakamura,et al.  Decadal Variability in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension Simulated in an Eddy-Resolving OGCM , 2006 .

[78]  J. Wallace,et al.  Low-frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter: geographical distribution, structure and time-scale dependence , 1989 .

[79]  James W. Hurrell,et al.  The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climate Significance and Environmental Impact , 2003 .

[80]  Ngar-Cheung Lau,et al.  Remote Sea Surface Temperature Variations during ENSO: Evidence for a Tropical Atmospheric Bridge , 1999 .

[81]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century , 2003 .

[82]  Adam S. Phillips,et al.  Simulation of the 1976/77 Climate Transition over the North Pacific: Sensitivity to Tropical Forcing , 2006 .

[83]  John M. Wallace,et al.  El Niño events and their relation to the Southern Oscillation: 1925–1986 , 1987 .

[84]  D. Hartmann Global Physical Climatology , 1994 .

[85]  G. Mellor Introduction to physical oceanography , 1996 .

[86]  Bo Qiu,et al.  Coupled Decadal Variability in the North Pacific: An Observationally Constrained Idealized Model* , 2006 .

[87]  M. Cane,et al.  A Model El Niñ–Southern Oscillation , 1987 .

[88]  Paulo Nobre,et al.  Variations of Sea Surface Temperature, Wind Stress, and Rainfall over the Tropical Atlantic and South America. , 1996 .

[89]  H. Kao Eastern Pacific and central Pacific types of ENSO , 2009 .

[90]  M. Newman Interannual to Decadal Predictability of Tropical and North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures , 2007 .

[91]  C. Frankignoul,et al.  The Persistence of Winter Sea Surface Temperature in the North Atlantic , 2003 .

[92]  D. Vimont,et al.  Analogous Pacific and Atlantic Meridional Modes of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Variability* , 2004 .

[93]  D. Gutzler,et al.  Estimating the Effect of Stochastic Wind Stress Forcing on ENSO Irregularity , 1997 .

[94]  R. Stewart,et al.  Introduction to physical oceanography , 2008 .

[95]  Matthew Newman,et al.  ENSO-Forced Variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation , 2003 .

[96]  Michael E. Mann,et al.  Observed and Simulated Multidecadal Variability in the Northern Hemisphere , 1999 .

[97]  D. Thompson,et al.  Observations of large-scale ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Southern Hemisphere , 2007 .

[98]  Christopher W. Landsea,et al.  Influences of the Atlantic Warm Pool on Western Hemisphere Summer Rainfall and Atlantic Hurricanes , 2006 .

[99]  James D. Scott,et al.  Surface Flux Variability over the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans , 1997 .

[100]  C. Deser,et al.  Understanding the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies in midlatitudes , 2003 .

[101]  A. Barnston,et al.  Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns , 1987 .

[102]  C. Wunsch,et al.  Paleophysical oceanography with an emphasis on transport rates. , 2010, Annual review of marine science.

[103]  Y. Kushnir,et al.  Interdecadal Variations in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Associated Atmospheric Conditions , 1994 .

[104]  P. Imkeller,et al.  Stochastic climate models , 2001 .

[105]  Dai Lian-rong The study of Ξ~*-Ω interaction , 2009 .

[106]  R. Stouffer,et al.  The influence of transient surface fluxes on North Atlantic overturning in a coupled GCM Climate Change Experiment , 1999 .

[107]  J. Wallace,et al.  Teleconnections in the Geopotential Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter , 1981 .

[108]  D. Vimont The Contribution of the Interannual ENSO Cycle to the Spatial Pattern of Decadal ENSO-Like Variability* , 2005 .

[109]  James C. McWilliams,et al.  North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change , 2008 .

[110]  Geoffrey K. Vallis,et al.  Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics , 2006 .

[111]  John R. Lanzante,et al.  The Atmospheric Bridge: The Influence of ENSO Teleconnections on Air-Sea Interaction over the Global Oceans , 2002 .

[112]  Daniel J. Vimont,et al.  The Atlantic Meridional Mode and hurricane activity , 2007 .

[113]  J. Erlandson,et al.  Archaeology meets marine ecology: the antiquity of maritime cultures and human impacts on marine fisheries and ecosystems. , 2010, Annual review of marine science.

[114]  C. Frankignoul,et al.  Observed Impact of Atlantic SST Anomalies on the North Atlantic Oscillation , 2002 .

[115]  P. Chang,et al.  A decadal climate variation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from thermodynamic air-sea interactions , 1997, Nature.

[116]  Timothy M Shank,et al.  The ecology of seamounts: structure, function, and human impacts. , 2010, Annual review of marine science.

[117]  E. Rasmusson,et al.  Variations in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Wind Fields Associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño , 1982 .

[118]  C. Deser,et al.  Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction on Weekly Timescales in the North Atlantic and Pacific. , 1997 .

[119]  Shoshiro Minobe,et al.  Resonance in bidecadal and pentadecadal climate oscillations over the North Pacific: Role in climatic regime shifts , 1999 .

[120]  Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez,et al.  The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. , 2001 .

[121]  David J. Karoly,et al.  Southern Hemisphere Circulation Features Associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events , 1989 .

[122]  C. Deser,et al.  On the Relationship between Tropical and North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variations , 1995 .