Advanced solar R&D: Applying expert elicitations to inform climate policy

Both climate change and technical change are uncertain. In this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technological change in advanced solar photovoltaics. We then use the results of the expert elicitations as inputs to the MiniCAM integrated assessment model, to derive probabilistic information about the impacts of RDO32; Q54; Q55; Q58

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