Estimating chronic risk from natural disasters in developing countries: A case study on Honduras

Each year, more than 700 major natural catastrophe events shatter lives, destroy assets, and disrupt communities across broad geographic regions, particularly in developing countries. What impact do these natural disasters have on the development of poor countries? It is well known that natural catastrophes cause sharp increases in poverty; what is uncertain is the extent of their long-term impact on the economic viability of developing nations. The impact of natural disasters depends on two factors: the magnitude of the direct losses due to the event and the economic resilience of the country at the time the event strikes. A number of studies have examined the impact of catastrophes on a specific countries after an event occurred. A post-event analysis cannot capture the impact of chronic exposure to catastrophic events in that area. Absent adaptive behavior, each catastrophe renders the country more vulnerable to the next.