Sub-seasonal thaw slump mass wasting is not consistently energy limited at the landscape scale

Abstract. Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of timescales. On sub-seasonal timescales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellites. The estimated elevation changes at 12 m resolution complement the commonly observed planimetric retreat rates by providing information on volume losses. Their high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km2) allow us to track mass wasting as drivers such as the available energy change during the summer of 2015 in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm day−1) despite the ample available energy, suggesting the widespread presence of early season insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm day−1), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the headwall height. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting.

[1]  Edward C McRoberts,et al.  The Stability of Thawing Slopes , 1974 .

[2]  A. Lewkowicz,et al.  Headwall retreat of ground-ice slumps, Banks Island, Northwest Territories , 1987 .

[3]  P. Friele,et al.  Geomorphology, Vegetation Succession, Soil Characteristics and Permafrost in Retrogressive Thaw Slumps near Mayo, Yukon Territory , 1989 .

[4]  C. Burn,et al.  CANADIAN LANDFORM EXAMPLES ‐ 17 RETROGRESSIVE THAW SLUMPS , 1990 .

[5]  Anthony C. Davison,et al.  Bootstrap Methods and Their Application , 1998 .

[6]  R. Bamler,et al.  Synthetic aperture radar interferometry , 1998 .

[7]  S. Solomon,et al.  COASTAL PERMAFROST INVESTIGATIONS ALONG A RAPIDLY ERODING SHORELINE, TUKTOYAKTUK, N.W.T , 1998 .

[8]  P. Boesiger,et al.  A new correlation‐based fuzzy logic clustering algorithm for FMRI , 1998, Magnetic resonance in medicine.

[9]  A. J. Wilkinson,et al.  Synthetic aperture radar interferometry: a model for the joint statistics in layover areas , 1998, Proceedings of the 1998 South African Symposium on Communications and Signal Processing-COMSIG '98 (Cat. No. 98EX214).

[10]  G. Brooks,et al.  Canadian Landform Examples , 2000 .

[11]  C. Burn,et al.  The thermal regime of a retrogressive thaw slump near Mayo, Yukon Territory , 2000 .

[12]  J. Aylsworth,et al.  Surficial geology, subsurface materials, and thaw sensitivity of sediments , 2000 .

[13]  Adriano Camps,et al.  Dual-beam interferometry for ocean surface current vector mapping , 2001, IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote. Sens..

[14]  T. Warren Liao,et al.  Clustering of time series data - a survey , 2005, Pattern Recognit..

[15]  G. Grosse,et al.  Geological and geomorphological evolution of a sedimentary periglacial landscape in Northeast Siberia during the Late Quaternary , 2007 .

[16]  Gerhard Krieger,et al.  TanDEM-X: A Satellite Formation for High-Resolution SAR Interferometry , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[17]  Jaime Hueso Gonzalez,et al.  TanDEM-X: A satellite formation for high-resolution SAR interferometry , 2007 .

[18]  John H. Bradford,et al.  Sediment and nutrient delivery from thermokarst features in the foothills of the North Slope, Alaska: Potential impacts on headwater stream ecosystems , 2008 .

[19]  Wayne H. Pollard,et al.  Fifty years of coastal erosion and retrogressive thaw slump activity on Herschel Island, southern Beaufort Sea, Yukon Territory, Canada , 2008 .

[20]  H. Meyer,et al.  Palaeoenvironmental dynamics inferred from late Quaternary permafrost deposits on Kurungnakh Island, Lena Delta, Northeast Siberia, Russia , 2008 .

[21]  Steven V. Kokelj,et al.  The environment and permafrost of the Mackenzie Delta area , 2009 .

[22]  Trevor C. Lantz,et al.  Origin and polycyclic behaviour of tundra thaw slumps, Mackenzie Delta region, Northwest Territories, Canada , 2009 .

[23]  Guido Grosse,et al.  Vulnerability of high‐latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance , 2011 .

[24]  Guido Grosse,et al.  Coastal erosion dynamics on the permafrost-dominated Bykovsky Peninsula, north Siberia, 1951–2006 , 2011 .

[25]  I. Overeem,et al.  Thermal Erosion of a Permafrost Coastline: Improving Process-Based Models Using Time-Lapse Photography , 2011 .

[26]  Guido Grosse,et al.  Spatial analyses of thermokarst lakes and basins in Yedoma landscapes of the Lena Delta , 2011 .

[27]  Philip Marsh,et al.  Recent Shrub Proliferation in the Mackenzie Delta Uplands and Microclimatic Implications , 2012, Ecosystems.

[28]  Gerhard Krieger,et al.  Relative height error analysis of TanDEM-X elevation data , 2012 .

[29]  Julia Boike,et al.  Baseline characteristics of climate, permafrost and land cover from a new permafrost observatory in the Lena River Delta, Siberia (1998-2011) , 2012 .

[30]  Ian D. Clark,et al.  Thawing of massive ground ice in mega slumps drives increases in stream sediment and solute flux across a range of watershed scales , 2013 .

[31]  M. T. Jorgenson,et al.  8.20 Thermokarst Terrains , 2013 .

[32]  Guido Grosse,et al.  Short- and long-term thermo-erosion of ice-rich permafrost coasts in the Laptev Sea region , 2013 .

[33]  Guido Grosse,et al.  Quantifying landscape change in an arctic coastal lowland using repeat airborne LiDAR , 2013 .

[34]  Ö. Gustafsson,et al.  Permafrost-carbon complexities , 2013 .

[35]  Jeremy B. Jones,et al.  Timing of retrogressive thaw slump initiation in the Noatak Basin, northwest Alaska, USA , 2014 .

[36]  M. Poland.  Time‐averaged discharge rate of subaerial lava at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, measured from TanDEM‐X interferometry: Implications for magma supply and storage during 2011–2013 , 2014 .

[37]  Benjamin Bräutigam,et al.  Relative Height Accuracy Estimation Method for InSAR-Based DEMs , 2015, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing.

[38]  Dan Johan Weydahl,et al.  Temporal Stability of X-Band Single-Pass InSAR Heights in a Spruce Forest: Effects of Acquisition Properties and Season , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[39]  Julia Boike,et al.  Simulating the thermal regime and thaw processes of ice-rich permafrost ground with the land-surface model CryoGrid 3 , 2015 .

[40]  Robert H. Fraser,et al.  Distribution and growth of thaw slumps in the Richardson Mountains-Peel Plateau region, northwestern Canada , 2015 .

[41]  Frank Günther,et al.  Observing Muostakh disappear: permafrost thaw subsidence and erosion of a ground-ice-rich island in response to arctic summer warming and sea ice reduction , 2015 .

[42]  Robert H. Fraser,et al.  Increased precipitation drives mega slump development and destabilization of ice-rich permafrost terrain, northwestern Canada , 2015 .

[43]  Howard A. Zebker,et al.  Remote sensing measurements of thermokarst subsidence using InSAR , 2015 .

[44]  Emmanuel Trouvé,et al.  Elevation Changes Inferred From TanDEM-X Data Over the Mont-Blanc Area: Impact of the X-Band Interferometric Bias , 2016, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing.

[45]  Jens Strauss,et al.  Patterns and rates of riverbank erosion involving ice-rich permafrost (yedoma) in northern Alaska , 2016 .

[46]  Irena Hajnsek,et al.  A Statistical Test of Phase Closure to Detect Influences on DInSAR Deformation Estimates Besides Displacements and Decorrelation Noise: Two Case Studies in High-Latitude Regions , 2016, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[47]  J. Rethemeyer,et al.  Yedoma Ice Complex of the Buor Khaya Peninsula (southern Laptev Sea) , 2016 .

[48]  Trevor C. Lantz,et al.  Climate-driven thaw of permafrost preserved glacial landscapes, northwestern Canada , 2017 .

[49]  Guido Grosse,et al.  Coastal erosion and mass wasting along the Canadian Beaufort Sea based on annual airborne LiDAR elevation data , 2017 .

[50]  Trevor C. Lantz,et al.  Ground Temperatures and Permafrost Warming from Forest to Tundra, Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands and Anderson Plain, NWT, Canada , 2017 .

[51]  Steven V. Kokelj,et al.  Retrogressive thaw slumps temper dissolved organic carbon delivery to streams of the Peel Plateau, NWT, Canada , 2017 .

[52]  J. Kubanek,et al.  TanDEM‐X Time Series Analysis Reveals Lava Flow Volume and Effusion Rates of the 2012–2013 Tolbachik, Kamchatka Fissure Eruption , 2017 .