Iterative, annual performance-assessment calculations are being performed for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), which is a planned underground repository in southeastern New Mexico for the disposal of transuranic radioactive waste. The performance-assessment calculations estimate long-term (10,000-year) radionuclide releases from the disposal system to the accessible environment. The estimation of the releases is probabilistic in nature, requiring system parameters to be described with probability distributions. Because direct experimental data in some areas are presently insufficient or unavailable to form the required distributions, researchers at Sandia National Laboratories have used a formalized expert-judgment elicitation procedure to determine the state of knowledge in these areas. Expert judgment was used to estimate the concentrations of specific radionuclides in a repository brine that might be forced up an intruding borehole, and also to estimate the distribution coefficients to determine the retardation of radionuclides in the overlying Culebra Dolomite. The variables representing these concentrations and coefficients have been shown by 1990 sensitivity analyses to be among the set of parameters making the greatest contribution to the uncertainty in WIPP performance assessment predictions. Using available information, the experts (one expert panel addressed concentrations and a second panel addressed retardation) were briefed on the problem of insufficientmore » experimental data and were formally elicited to obtain probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty in fixed, but unknown, quantities. The probability distributions developed by the experts were incorporated into the 1991 and 1992 performance-assessment calculations.« less