On strong-motion uniform risk functionals computed from general probability distributions of earthquake recurrences

Abstract Uniform risk functionals, (e.g. Fourier and response spectrum, duration, etc.), have been defined and used for almost twenty years to describe, for each frequency, the values of the functional with equal probability of exceedance. Since then, improvements in estimating the risk functionals were made by including more refined descriptions of the earthquake faults, the uncertainties in estimating seismicities and maximum earthquake sizes, 18 and continuous updates of the empirical scaling of strong-motion amplitudes at a site. 19,34 Up till now, in the calculation of the risk functionals, the earthquake recurrences of a given size are always assumed to be Poissonian. This paper presents a method for replacing the Poissonian probability by more general and realistic probability functions to be used in the calculations of the uniform risk functionals.

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