Fundamental Uncertainty and Values

This paper explores the intertwining of uncertainty and values. We consider an important but underexplored field of fundamental uncertainty and values in decision-making. Some proposed methodologies to deal with fundamental uncertainty have included potential surprise theory, scenario planning and hypothetical retrospection. We focus on the principle of uncertainty transduction in hypothetical retrospection as an illustrative case of how values interact with fundamental uncertainty. We show that while uncertainty transduction appears intuitive in decision contexts it nevertheless fails in important ranges of strategic game-theoretic cases. The methodological reasons behind the failure are then examined.

[1]  N. Rescher.  The limits of science , 1999 .

[2]  Y. Ben-Haim.  Info-Gap Decision Theory: Decisions Under Severe Uncertainty , 2006 .

[3]  Sven Ove Hansson,et al.  The Ethics of Risk: Ethical Analysis in an Uncertain World , 2013 .

[4]  S. Hansson.  Managing Risks of the Unknown , 2016 .

[5]  G. Shafer,et al.  Probability and Finance: It's Only a Game! , 2001 .

[6]  G. Shackle.  The Bounds of Unknowledge , 1983 .

[7]  Didier Dubois,et al.  Possibility Theory and Its Applications: Where Do We Stand? , 2015, Handbook of Computational Intelligence.

[8]  G. L. S. Shackle,et al.  Decision Order and Time in Human Affairs , 1962 .

[9]  K. Arrow.  Alternative Approaches to the Theory of Choice in Risk-Taking Situations , 1951 .

[10]  J. Keynes.  A Treatise on Probability. , 1923 .

[11]  A Critical Evaluation of Comparative Probability , 2011 .

[12]  G. Gigerenzer.  How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases” , 1991 .

[13]  Lutz E. Schlange.  Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation , 1997 .

[14]  Joseph Y. Halpern.  Plausibility Measures: A General Approach For Representing Uncertainty , 2001, IJCAI.

[15]  Lorenzo Magnani,et al.  Model-Based and Manipulative Abduction in Science , 2004 .

[16]  A. Tversky,et al.  Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment , 1983 .

[17]  Ahti-Veikko Pietarinen.  The Science to Save Us from Philosophy of Science , 2015 .

[18]  Ahti-Veikko Pietarinen,et al.  New Light on Peirce's Conceptions of Retroduction, Deduction, and Scientific Reasoning , 2014 .

[19]  James Derbyshire.  Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning , 2017 .

[20]  F. Knight.  The economic nature of the firm: From Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit , 2009 .

[21]  C. Hempel.  Science and Human Values , 1960 .

[22]  Van Fraassen,et al.  Laws and symmetry , 1989 .

[23]  Sven Ove Hansson,et al.  Decision Making Under Great Uncertainty , 1996 .

[24]  D. Chiffi,et al.  Normative facets of risk , 2015 .

[25]  D. Moggridge,et al.  The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, Volumes XIII and XIV, The General Theory and After, Part I, Preparation and Part II, Defence and Development. , 1974 .

[26]  T. Schelling.  The Strategy of Conflict , 1963 .