Niche overlap and invasion of competitors in random environments I. Models without demographic stochasticity

Abstract The relationship between persistent, small to moderate levels of random environmental fluctuations and limits to the similarity of competing species is studied. The analytical theory hinges on deriving conditions under which a rare invading species will tend to increase when faced with an array of resident competitors in a fluctuating environment. A general approximation scheme predicts that the effects of low levels of stochasticity will typically be small. The technique is applied explicitly to a class of symmetric, discrete-time stochastic analogs of the Lotka-Volterra equations that incorporate cross-correlation but no autocorrelation. The random environment limits to similarity are always very close to the corresponding constant environment limits. However, stochasticity can either facilitate or hinder invasion. The exact limits to similarity are extremely model-dependent. In addition to the symmetric models, an analytically tractable class of models is presented that incorporates both auto- and cross-correlation and no symmetry assumptions. For all of the models investigated, the analytical theory predicts that small-scale stochasticity does little, if anything, to limit similarity. Extensive Monte Carlo results are presented that confirm the analytical results whenever the dynamics of the discretetime models are biologically reasonable in the sense that trajectories do not exhibit unrealistic crashes. Interestingly, the class of stochastic models that is well behaved in this sense includes models whose deterministic analogs are chaotic. The qualitative conclusion, supported by both the analytical and simulation results, is that for competitive guilds adequately modeled by Lotka-Volterra equations including small to moderate levels of random fluctuations, practical limits to similarity can be obtained by ignoring the stochastic terms and performing a deterministic analysis. The mathematical and biological robustness of this conclusion is discussed.

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