RESIDENTIAL LOCATION-SPECIFIC TRAVEL PREFERENCES IN AN INTERVENING OPPORTUNITIES MODEL: TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT FOR URBAN RELEASE AREAS

The urban development of green-field areas requires an assessment against economic, social and environmental sustainability objectives of which vehicle-kilometers of travel (VKT) and journey to work patterns by automobile is one important criterion. Current practice in Australia on travel demand forecasting applies strategic land-use and spatial interaction models calibrated for the whole of the metropolitan area to the proposed urban release area to estimate future VKT, among other travel indicators. This will give misleading results for spatial patterns of traffic in these release areas as demonstrated by previous research. A case study of Canberra, the Australia's national capital, is being investigated to assess whether there is a case or not for a variation to the long-term metropolitan structure policy (linear development structure of the Y-Plan) using both the traditional gravity model and the intervening opportunities model with location-specific preference functions.