Implementing a spatial model of Urban Carrying Capacity Load Number (UCCLN) to monitor the environmental loads of urban ecosystems. Case study: Tehran metropolis

Abstract The non-linear, unexpected and severe responses of ecosystems to the environmental changes crossing ecological thresholds or environmental limits, necessitate the regular monitoring of the human-induced pressures to the urban ecosystems. The present study aims to introduce a spatial decision support system for sustainable environmental planning and management of urban ecosystems by establishing an Urban Carrying Capacity Load Number model (UCCLN) based on carrying capacity concepts and sustainability principles .This model, by applying 30 temporal and spatial indicators continuously monitors the environmental loads on the urban ecosystems. Environmental load was represented by load number index. It was calculated in each zone of study area (urban districts). Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to establish UCCLN model and Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS). The study area was Tehran metropolis, the capital of Iran. The results showed that none of the 115 urban districts of Tehran had optimal Total Load Number (TLN) ranging from (10 to100); 7 districts (6%) had low-to-medium range of TLN (TLN = 100–200); 11 districts (9.5%) had medium-to-high range (TLN = 200–300); 57 districts (49.5%) had high-to-very high range (TLN = 300–400); 40 districts (34.7%) had the TLN range of very high-to-critical (TLN = 400–500); and none of them had the TLN of 500. Furthermore, the results revealed that Tehran has already overshot its ecological thresholds. Not only most of the 30 indicators of environmental pressure in most of the districts (85%) had high DCC and LN scores, but also most of the 115 districts obtained high DCC, and as a result LN scores. The need for developing more efficient urban planning and management strategies to cope with the increasing environmental loads in the study area is inevitable.