Risk assessment for distribution transformer burning-out based on D-S evidence theory

Distribution transformer is one of the most important components of distribution power system, and its normal operation plays a very important role in power system. It is significant for operator to assess the risk of distribution transformer burn-out by fusing kinds of information of different automation systems in power system. The risk factors and their weights of distribution transformer burn-out are analyzed in the paper. A risk assessment method for distribution transformer burn-out based on the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory and expert experience knowledge is prevented in this paper, which regards the severity of distribution transformer burn-out caused by different risk factors scored by expert as evidence of distribution trans former burn-out. All the evidence is combined according to the Dempster's combination rule, inferring the probability of distribution transformer burn-out. The example of distribution trans former burn-out risk testifies the feasibility and effectiveness of proposed approach, which can accurately identify the transformer burn-out risk.

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