Application of Multi-objective Optimization to a Long-term Design of Croatian National Energy System

This paper presents results of an ongoing research effort with the goal of investigating the possibility of improving of the planning of the supply side of energy system with a high share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). The problem consists in identifying appropriate generating and storage technologies and their sizing for a long-term scenario of twenty years or more. Due to the stochastic nature of RES, it is necessary to integrate expensive storage capacities into an energy system with a high share of RES and to model appropriate energy market. While all energy carriers are considered, only the electricity carrier is modelled in this study, with notion taken for the heating demand. There are provisions for additional energy carriers, which are not used at this moment. A two-level approach in which multi-objective optimization was used on the global level to design a complex Croatian Energy System (CES), where electric vehicles (EVs) are integrated to serve as battery storage in Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) mode for a scenario between 2015 and 2050. In addition, case study includes nine aggregated hydro power plants, one for each river basin in Croatia. Also, case study includes solar and wind power plants modelled for six locations in Croatia: Osijek, Zagreb, Rijeka, Šibenik, Split and Dubrovnik. The resulting Pareto front suggests that certain level of conventional energy sources will have to remain in the energy system to take into the account unfavourable weather conditions and to cover heating demand, which also results in significantly lower load factors for those power plants. Also, variants with more RES share have lower total energy system load factor and significantly higher installed capacity.

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