The year 2000 software problem: Quantifying the cost and addressing the consequences

The awareness is developing that there is a problem associated with the coming of the new millennium. Europe experienced problems of millenarian movements in 1000, and to a lesser extent in 1500. Those awaiting the second coming of Christ tend to raise their profile at such times, however arbitrary the chronology. It is unusual to have Prime Ministers cast as prophets of doom, warning of possible economic slump if businesses are brought to a halt by the failure of their systems. The British Prime Minister does not claim to be a technology expert, but he knows that he has encountered a real and deep-seated problem which requires emergency attention. The American President and Vice-President have taken a similar view. The coming of 2000 is no surprise, and in the UK the millennium has been the focus of officially led plans for cultural celebrations, but the light that it casts on our relationship with technology is not understood. At present, systems are seen as anything but stable, the Christmas presents of large fees are going to consultants, and there is an apparent shortage of wise men and angels, though not of sheep. As with Old Testament prophets, those who announce that there are fundamental and unexpected problems with technologies at the heart of modern society tend not to receive a welcome. It is perhaps time for those who built defective and undocumented software systems to prepare to see them collapse with unpredictable consequences: repentance is not enough. Capers Jones has written an authoritative account of the year 2000 software problem, based on the experience of his company. As he says: