Mapping probabilities of extreme continental water storage changes from space gravimetry

Using data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, we derive statistically robust “hot spot” regions of high probability of peak anomalous—i.e., with respect to the seasonal cycle—water storage (of up to 0.7 m one-in-five-year return level) and flux (up to 0.14 m/month). Analysis of, and comparison with, up to 32 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis fields reveals generally good agreement of these hot spot regions to GRACE results and that most exceptions are located in the tropics. However, a simulation experiment reveals that differences observed by GRACE are statistically significant, and further error analysis suggests that by around the year 2020, it will be possible to detect temporal changes in the frequency of extreme total fluxes (i.e., combined effects of mainly precipitation and floods) for at least 10–20% of the continental area, assuming that we have a continuation of GRACE by its follow-up GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission.

[1]  P. Moore,et al.  Integration of altimetric lake levels and GRACE gravimetry over Africa: Inferences for terrestrial water storage change 2003–2011 , 2014 .

[2]  Frédéric Frappart,et al.  Regional GRACE-based estimates of water mass variations over Australia: validation and interpretation , 2013 .

[3]  P. Döll,et al.  Global‐scale assessment of groundwater depletion and related groundwater abstractions: Combining hydrological modeling with information from well observations and GRACE satellites , 2014 .

[4]  R. Houborg,et al.  Drought indicators based on model‐assimilated Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage observations , 2012 .

[5]  J. Kusche,et al.  Separation of large scale water storage patterns over Iran using GRACE, altimetry and hydrological data , 2014 .

[6]  S. Wijffels,et al.  Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000 , 2012, Science.

[7]  B. D. Tapley,et al.  Recent La Plata basin drought conditions observed by satellite gravimetry , 2010 .

[8]  Isabella Velicogna,et al.  Regional acceleration in ice mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica using GRACE time‐variable gravity data , 2014 .

[9]  Vincent Humphrey,et al.  Assessing Global Water Storage Variability from GRACE: Trends, Seasonal Cycle, Subseasonal Anomalies and Extremes , 2016, Surveys in Geophysics.

[10]  Jens Schröter,et al.  Revisiting the contemporary sea-level budget on global and regional scales , 2016, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[11]  R. Nerem,et al.  The influence of ENSO on global terrestrial water storage using GRACE , 2012 .

[12]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate change 2001 : the scientific basis , 2001 .

[13]  Leo R Beard,et al.  Statistical Methods in Hydrology , 1962 .

[14]  P. Rasch,et al.  Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming , 2015, Nature Communications.

[15]  F. Landerer,et al.  Accuracy of scaled GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates , 2012 .

[16]  Anne Springer,et al.  New Estimates of Variations in Water Flux and Storage over Europe Based on Regional (Re)Analyses and Multisensor Observations , 2014 .

[17]  T. Huntington.  Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis , 2006 .

[18]  J. Stedinger,et al.  Generalized maximum‐likelihood generalized extreme‐value quantile estimators for hydrologic data , 2000 .

[19]  J. Thepaut,et al.  The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system , 2011 .

[20]  B. Chao,et al.  Acceleration signal in GRACE time-variable gravity in relation to interannual hydrological changes , 2011 .

[21]  J. Hosking.  Maximum‐Likelihood Estimation of the Parameters of the Generalized Extreme‐Value Distribution , 1985 .

[22]  Frank Flechtner,et al.  What Can be Expected from the GRACE-FO Laser Ranging Interferometer for Earth Science Applications? , 2016, Surveys in Geophysics.

[23]  Anne Springer,et al.  Does GRACE see the terrestrial water cycle “intensifying”? , 2016 .