Innovation Policy Assessment for Civil Infrastructure System-of-Systems

According to the National Academy of Engineering, innovations such as intelligent transportation systems, alternative fuels, smart grids, and financial innovations are critical to enhancing the resilience and sustainability of infrastructure systems. The key to expansion of infrastructure innovations is effective policymaking. This paper adopts an Innovation Systemof-Systems framework for policymakers to analyze innovation policies in interdependent infrastructure systems. The System-of-Systems framework facilitates consideration of the adaptive micro-behaviors of the components of the system within and across different levels of analysis. The application of the framework is demonstrated for the assessment of financial innovation policies for U.S. transportation infrastructure. Using hybrid Agent-based/System Dynamics techniques, a complex system model is created to simulate the micro-behaviors of state Departments of Transportation, private institutional investors, and the public. Different policy landscapes are developed using the output of the simulation model and classification and regression tree analysis as a meta-model. The quality of the model outcomes are evaluated through conceptual model validity, data validity, internal validity, and sensitivity analysis. The model provides policymakers with a tool to: (i) consider the effects of parameters in a complex system simultaneously and (ii) simulate the landscape of possible outcomes due to different policies.

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