Differentiating between rain, snow, and glacier contributions to river discharge in the western Himalaya using remote-sensing data and distributed hydrological modeling

Abstract Rivers draining the southern Himalaya provide most of the water supply for the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains. Despite the importance of water resources in light of climate change, the relative contributions of rainfall, snow and glacier melt to discharge are not well understood, due to the scarcity of ground-based data in this complex terrain. Here, we quantify discharge sources in the Sutlej Valley, western Himalaya, from 2000 to 2012 with a distributed hydrological model that is based on daily, ground-calibrated remote-sensing observation. Based on the consistently good model performance, we analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrologic components and quantified their contribution to river discharge. Our results indicate that the Sutlej River's annual discharge at the mountain front is sourced to 55% by effective rainfall (rainfall reduced by evapotranspiration), 35% by snow melt and 10% by glacier melt. In the high-elevation orogenic interior glacial runoff contributes ∼30% to annual river discharge. These glacier melt contributions are especially important during years with substantially reduced rainfall and snowmelt runoff, as during 2004, to compensate for low river discharge and ensure sustained water supply and hydropower generation. In 2004, discharge of the Sutlej River totaled only half the maximum annual discharge; with 17.3% being sourced by glacier melt. Our findings underscore the importance of calibrating remote-sensing data with ground-based data to constrain hydrological models with reasonable accuracy. For instance, we found that TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) product 3B42 V7 systematically overestimates rainfall in arid regions of our study area by a factor of up to 5. By quantifying the spatiotemporal distribution of water resources we provide an important assessment of the potential impact of global warming on river discharge in the western Himalaya. Given the near-global coverage of the utilized remote-sensing datasets this hydrological modeling approach can be readily transferred to other data-sparse regions.

[1]  A. Bauder,et al.  Modelling runoff from highly glacierized alpine drainage basins in a changing climate , 2008 .

[2]  S. M. Jong,et al.  Large-scale monitoring of snow cover and runoff simulation in Himalayan river basins using remote sensing , 2009 .

[3]  B. Bookhagen,et al.  Abnormal monsoon years and their control on erosion and sediment flux in the high, arid northwest Himalaya , 2005 .

[4]  S. Running,et al.  Regional evaporation estimates from flux tower and MODIS satellite data , 2007 .

[5]  A. Barros,et al.  Monitoring the Monsoon in the Himalayas: Observations in Central Nepal, June 2001 , 2003 .

[6]  Jessica D. Lundquist,et al.  Surface temperature patterns in complex terrain: Daily variations and long‐term change in the central Sierra Nevada, California , 2007 .

[7]  Newsha K. Ajami,et al.  Addressing snow model uncertainty for hydrologic prediction , 2010 .

[8]  Jürgen Böhner,et al.  Land-Surface Parameters Specific to Topo-Climatology , 2009 .

[9]  Jeff Dozier,et al.  Effect of Viewing Angle on the Infrared Brightness Temperature of Snow , 1982 .

[10]  N. Molotch.  Reconstructing snow water equivalent in the Rio Grande headwaters using remotely sensed snow cover data and a spatially distributed snowmelt model , 2009 .

[11]  F. Paul,et al.  Compilation of a glacier inventory for the western Himalayas from satellite data: methods, challenges, and results , 2012 .

[12]  Z. Wan.  New refinements and validation of the MODIS Land-Surface Temperature/Emissivity products , 2008 .

[13]  T. Piechota,et al.  Relationships between Pacific and Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures and U.S. streamflow variability , 2006 .

[14]  Günter Blöschl,et al.  Estimating degree-day factors from MODIS for snowmelt runoff modeling , 2014 .

[15]  Naresh Kumar,et al.  Effect of orography on precipitation in the western Himalayan region , 1997 .

[16]  J. Gardner,et al.  Ablation on Debris Covered Glaciers: an Example from the Rakhiot Glacier, Punjab, Himalaya , 2008 .

[17]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[18]  Rolf Weingartner,et al.  An introduction to the hydrological modelling system PREVAH and its pre- and post-processing-tools , 2009, Environ. Model. Softw..

[19]  A. Barros,et al.  Probing orographic controls in the Himalayas during the monsoon using satellite imagery , 2004 .

[20]  Albert Rango,et al.  Revisiting the Degree-Day Method for Snowmelt Computations , 1995 .

[21]  Kenneth L. Clark,et al.  Ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes after disturbance in forests of North America , 2010 .

[22]  Eric F. Wood,et al.  Assessing the skill of satellite‐based precipitation estimates in hydrologic applications , 2010 .

[23]  Scott J. Goetz,et al.  Inference of surface and air temperature, atmospheric precipitable water and vapor pressure deficit using Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer satellite observations: comparison with field observations , 1998 .

[24]  I. Jolliffe,et al.  Forecast verification : a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science , 2011 .

[25]  Digital filtering of random digits , 1970 .

[26]  Douglas W. Burbank,et al.  Towards a complete Himalayan hydrologic budget : The spatiotemporal distribution of snowmelt and rainfall and their impact on river discharge , 2010 .

[27]  P. Döll,et al.  Simulating river flow velocity on global scale , 2005 .

[28]  N. DiGirolamo,et al.  MODIS snow-cover products , 2002 .

[29]  Johannes J. Feddema,et al.  Role of snow and glacier melt in controlling river hydrology in Liddar watershed (western Himalaya) under current and future climate , 2012 .

[30]  Andrew G. Klein,et al.  Validation of daily MODIS snow cover maps of the Upper Rio Grande River Basin for the 2000–2001 snow year , 2003 .

[31]  John S. Kimball,et al.  Satellite assessment of land surface evapotranspiration for the pan‐Arctic domain , 2009 .

[32]  Michael Ian Shamos,et al.  Computational geometry: an introduction , 1985 .

[33]  T. Schmugge,et al.  Remote sensing in hydrology , 2002 .

[34]  P. Chevallier,et al.  Remote sensing estimates of glacier mass balances in the Himachal Pradesh (Western Himalaya, India) , 2007 .

[35]  P. Chevallier,et al.  From balance to imbalance: a shift in the dynamic behaviour of Chhota Shigri glacier, western Himalaya, India , 2012 .

[36]  Jeff Dozier,et al.  A generalized split-window algorithm for retrieving land-surface temperature from space , 1996, IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote. Sens..

[37]  Regional analysis and modelling of groundwater runoff components from catchments in hard rock areas , 1999 .

[38]  Tobias Bolch,et al.  Glacier mapping: a review with special reference to the Indian Himalayas , 2009 .

[39]  R. Hock.  A distributed temperature-index ice- and snowmelt model including potential direct solar radiation , 1999, Journal of Glaciology.

[40]  Thomas Einfalt,et al.  Quality control of precipitation data , 2008 .

[41]  J. Famiglietti,et al.  Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India , 2009, Nature.

[42]  Zhenchun Hao,et al.  Discharge regime and simulation for the upstream of major rivers over Tibetan Plateau , 2013 .

[43]  P. Burlando,et al.  Transmission of solar radiation through clouds on melting glaciers: a comparison of parameterizations and their impact on melt modelling , 2011, Journal of Glaciology.

[44]  V. V. Salomonsona,et al.  Estimating fractional snow cover from MODIS using the normalized difference snow index , 2004 .

[45]  F. Turk,et al.  Component analysis of errors in satellite-based precipitation estimates , 2009 .

[46]  Wolfgang Schwanghart,et al.  Short Communication: TopoToolbox 2 – MATLAB-based software for topographic analysis and modeling in Earth surface sciences , 2014 .

[47]  S. J. Connor,et al.  Validation of high‐resolution satellite rainfall products over complex terrain , 2008 .

[48]  J. Monteith.  Evaporation and environment. , 1965, Symposia of the Society for Experimental Biology.

[49]  L. B. Leopold,et al.  The hydraulic geometry of stream channels and some physiographic implications , 1953 .

[50]  Nicholas J. Clifford,et al.  Classics in physical geography revisited , 1996 .

[51]  Yves Arnaud,et al.  Four years of mass balance on Chhota Shigri Glacier, Himachal Pradesh, India, a new benchmark glacier in the western Himalaya , 2007, Journal of Glaciology.

[52]  Y. Arnaud,et al.  Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas , 2012, Nature.

[53]  M. Winiger,et al.  Karakorum–Hindukush–western Himalaya: assessing high‐altitude water resources , 2005 .

[54]  Martin Funk,et al.  An enhanced temperature-index glacier melt model including the shortwave radiation balance: development and testing for Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland , 2005 .

[55]  P. Pilewskie,et al.  How Much Solar Radiation Do Clouds Absorb? , 1996, Science.

[56]  Thomas H. Painter,et al.  Mountain hydrology of the western United States , 2006 .

[57]  M. Bierkens,et al.  Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers , 2010, Science.

[58]  D. Hall,et al.  Development of methods for mapping global snow cover using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer data , 1995 .

[59]  Application of a Conceptual Precipitation- Runoff Model in the Langtang Kfaola Basin, Nepal Himalaya , 1993 .

[60]  Atsumu Ohmura,et al.  Physical Basis for the Temperature-Based Melt-Index Method , 2001 .

[61]  Stefan Wunderle,et al.  Validation of a modified snow cover retrieval algorithm from historical 1-km AVHRR data over the European Alps , 2012 .

[62]  Bethany T. Neilson,et al.  Solar radiative heating of fiber‐optic cables used to monitor temperatures in water , 2010 .

[63]  Y. Hong,et al.  The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-Global, Multiyear, Combined-Sensor Precipitation Estimates at Fine Scales , 2007 .

[64]  Thomas H. Painter,et al.  Time-space continuity of daily maps of fractional snow cover and albedo from MODIS , 2008 .

[65]  Martin Beniston,et al.  Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia) , 2012 .

[66]  Maosheng Zhao,et al.  Development of a global evapotranspiration algorithm based on MODIS and global meteorology data , 2007 .

[67]  Douglas W. Burbank,et al.  Topography, relief, and TRMM‐derived rainfall variations along the Himalaya , 2006 .

[68]  B. Bookhagen,et al.  Seasonal precipitation gradients and their impact on fluvial sediment flux in the Northwest Himalaya , 2010 .

[69]  A. Barros,et al.  From weather to climate—Seasonal and interannual variability of storms and implications for erosion processes in the Himalaya , 2006 .

[70]  C. Nucci,et al.  On return stroke currents and remote electromagnetic fields associated with lightning strikes to tall structures: 2. Experiment and model validation , 2007 .

[71]  Jeff Dozier,et al.  Evaluation of distributed hydrologic impacts of temperature-index and energy-based snow models , 2013 .

[72]  Mark Cutler,et al.  Meteorology and surface energy fluxes in the 2005–2007 ablation seasons at the Miage debris-covered glacier, Mont Blanc Massif, Italian Alps , 2010 .

[73]  M. Zappa,et al.  The hydrological modelling system PREVAH , 2007 .

[74]  D. Hall,et al.  Accuracy assessment of the MODIS snow products , 2007 .

[75]  Francesca Pellicciotti,et al.  Glaciers as a Proxy to Quantify the Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in the Hunza Basin , 2012 .

[76]  R. E. Carlson,et al.  Monotone Piecewise Cubic Interpolation , 1980 .

[77]  B. Brock,et al.  An energy-balance model for debris-covered glaciers including heat conduction through the debris layer , 2010, Journal of Glaciology.

[78]  András Bárdossy,et al.  Cloud removal methodology from MODIS snow cover product , 2009 .

[79]  L. Bengtsson,et al.  Effect of warmer climate on the depletion of snow-covered area in the Satluj basin in the western Himalayan region , 2003 .

[80]  W. Immerzeel,et al.  Sources of uncertainty in modeling the glaciohydrological response of a Karakoram watershed to climate change , 2013 .

[81]  Regine Hock,et al.  Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas , 2003 .

[82]  Z. Wan,et al.  Quality assessment and validation of the MODIS global land surface temperature , 2004 .

[83]  Sanjay K. Jain,et al.  Modelling of streamflow and its components for a large Himalayan basin with predominant snowmelt yields , 2003 .

[84]  Jaroslav Martinec,et al.  SNOWMELT - RUNOFF MODEL FOR STREAM FLOW FORECASTS , 1975 .

[85]  B. Bookhagen,et al.  Bedrock channel geometry along an orographic rainfall gradient in the upper Marsyandi River valley in central Nepal , 2007 .

[86]  Adina Racoviteanu,et al.  Evaluation of an ice ablation model to estimate the contribution of melting glacier ice to annual discharge in the Nepal Himalaya , 2013 .

[87]  The role of glaciers in stream flow from the Nepal Himalaya , 2010 .

[88]  Joan M. Galve,et al.  Ground measurements for the validation of land surface temperatures derived from AATSR and MODIS data , 2005 .

[89]  Maosheng Zhao,et al.  Improvements to a MODIS global terrestrial evapotranspiration algorithm , 2011 .

[90]  S. Mudd,et al.  Reconstruction of a major storm event from its geomorphic signature: The Ladakh floods, 6 August 2010 , 2012 .

[91]  P. Mote,et al.  Surface temperature lapse rates over complex terrain: Lessons from the Cascade Mountains , 2010 .

[92]  A. Baltensweiler,et al.  Spatially distributed hydrotope-based modelling of evapotranspiration and runoff in mountainous basins , 1999 .

[93]  Thomas H. Painter,et al.  Assessment of methods for mapping snow cover from MODIS , 2011 .

[94]  M. J. Booij,et al.  The impact of climate change on the water resources of Hindukush Karakorum Himalaya region under different glacier coverage scenarios , 2008 .

[95]  Peter M. Allen,et al.  DOWNSTREAM CHANNEL GEOMETRY FOR USE IN PLANNING‐LEVEL MODELS , 1994 .

[96]  R. Dickinson,et al.  One-dimensional snow water and energy balance model for vegetated surfaces , 1999 .

[97]  L. Braun,et al.  On the information content of air temperaturenin the context of snow melt estimation , 1989 .

[98]  Sanjay K. Jain,et al.  Snow and glacier melt in the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam in the western Himalayan region , 2002 .

[99]  B. Bookhagen,et al.  Climatic and geologic controls on suspended sediment flux in the Sutlej River Valley, western Himalaya , 2012 .

[100]  Xingong Li,et al.  Snowmelt runoff modelling in an arid mountain watershed, Tarim Basin, China , 2008 .

[101]  David A. Seal,et al.  The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission , 2007 .

[102]  B. Bookhagen,et al.  Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover , 2011 .

[103]  G. Blöschl,et al.  Validation of MODIS snow cover images over Austria , 2006 .

[104]  J A Swets,et al.  Form of empirical ROCs in discrimination and diagnostic tasks: implications for theory and measurement of performance. , 1986, Psychological bulletin.

[105]  M. Sapiano.  An evaluation of high resolution precipitation products at low resolution , 2009 .

[106]  T. Barnett,et al.  Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions , 2005, Nature.

[107]  B. Bookhagen,et al.  Channel planform geometry and slopes from freely available high-spatial resolution imagery and DEM fusion: Implications for channel width scalings, erosion proxies, and fluvial signatures in tectonically active landscapes , 2013 .

[108]  R. Barry,et al.  Atmosphere, Weather and Climate , 1968 .

[109]  Stewart J. Cohen,et al.  Climate Change 2014: Impacts,Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2014 .

[110]  William P. Kustas,et al.  INCORPORATING RADIATION INPUTS INTO THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF MODEL , 1996 .

[111]  R. Thayyen,et al.  Role of glaciers and snow cover on headwater river hydrology in monsoon regime : Micro-scale study of Din Gad catchment, Garhwal Himalaya, India , 2007 .

[112]  Dieter Scherer,et al.  WRF simulation of a precipitation event over the Tibetan Plateau, China - an assessment using remote sensing and ground observations , 2010 .