Search Algorithm for Minimum Reliability Index of Earth Slopes

In probabilistic slope stability analysis, the similarity and differences of the surface of minimum factor of safety (FS) and the surface of minimum reliability index (β) have not been investigated fully. Probabilistic analyses have often been performed on the surface of minimum FS, and sometimes on an arbitrary surface. The surface of minimum FS and the surface of minimum β do not generally coincide. In this paper, an expedient technique is presented to search for the critical probabilistic surface utilizing existing deterministic slope stability programs. This technique is based on searching the critical surfaces obtained using specific combinations of soil parameter values. The critical probabilistic surface was found to generally coincide with that obtained by setting one dominant parameter to a low value. The technique is examined by a parametric study and applied to some case studies. It proved to provide a practical and efficient method to locate the critical probabilistic surface.

[1]  J. Christian,et al.  Reliability Applied to Slope Stability Analysis , 1994 .

[2]  R. N. Chowdhury,et al.  SLOPE SYSTEM RELIABILITY WITH GENERAL SLIP SURFACES , 1994 .

[3]  N. Morgenstern,et al.  Stability Coefficients for Earth Slopes , 1960 .

[4]  Van Uu Nguyen,et al.  Determination of Critical Slope Failure Surfaces , 1985 .

[5]  G. A. Leonards,et al.  SLIDE IN UPSTREAM SLOPE OF LAKE SHELBYVILLE DAM. DISCUSSION AND CLOSURE , 1986 .

[6]  K. S. Li,et al.  Rapid evaluation of the critical slip surface in slope stability problems , 1987 .

[7]  Dennes T. Bergado,et al.  STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF PORE PRESSURE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF THE SAFETY OF EARTH SLOPES , 1985 .

[8]  Ahmed M. Hassan.  A practical approach to combined probabilistic analysis of slope stability and seepage problems , 1998 .

[9]  Alan W. Bishop,et al.  The Relevance of the Triaxial Test to the Solution of Stability Problems , 1960 .

[10]  W. Tang,et al.  Reliability model of progressive slope failure , 1987 .

[11]  P. Lumb,et al.  Probabilistic design of slopes , 1987 .

[12]  C. W. Lovell,et al.  Searching techniques in slope stability analysis , 1980 .

[13]  Robin Chowdhury,et al.  Probabilistic Model of Progressive Failure of Slopes , 1982 .

[14]  W. Tang,et al.  EFFICIENT RELIABILITY EVALUATION USING SPREADSHEET , 1997 .

[15]  Katsuhiko Kuroda,et al.  A NEW LOOK AT FLUCTUATING GEOTECHNICAL DATA FOR RELIABILITY DESIGN , 1991 .

[16]  Lawrence L. Kupper,et al.  Probability, statistics, and decision for civil engineers , 1970 .

[17]  E. Vanmarcke.  Reliability of Earth Slopes , 1977 .

[18]  E. Spencer.  A Method of Analysis of the Stability of Embankments Assuming Parallel Inter-Slice Forces , 1967 .

[19]  R. D'Andrea,et al.  Safety Factors for Probabilistic Slope Design , 1982 .

[20]  Thomas F. Wolff.  Embankment reliability versus factor of safety: Before and after slide repair , 1991 .