Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multireservoir Management for Flood Protection, Hydropower Production, and Agricultural Water Supply

[1]  Erik Pruyt,et al.  On generating and exploring the behavior space of complex models , 2015 .

[2]  Peter J. Webster,et al.  Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979–2008) , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[3]  K. Trenberth.  Changes in precipitation with climate change , 2011 .

[4]  K. Takeuchi,et al.  Correlation between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation in South‐east Asia and the Pacific region , 2004 .

[5]  Patrick M. Reed,et al.  Borg: An Auto-Adaptive Many-Objective Evolutionary Computing Framework , 2013, Evolutionary Computation.

[6]  F. Giorgi,et al.  An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections , 2007 .

[7]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  Rival framings: A framework for discovering how problem formulation uncertainties shape risk management trade‐offs in water resources systems , 2017 .

[8]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  An evaluation framework for input variable selection algorithms for environmental data-driven models , 2014, Environ. Model. Softw..

[9]  Tianjun Zhou,et al.  Detecting and understanding the multi-decadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon: Recent progress and state of affairs , 2009 .

[10]  R. Lempert,et al.  Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative Long-Term Policy Analysis , 2003 .

[11]  Marjolijn Haasnoot,et al.  Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways , 2017 .

[12]  M. Clark,et al.  Interannual and interdecadal variability of thailand summer monsoon season , 2005 .

[13]  Upmanu Lall,et al.  A nonparametric stochastic approach for multisite disaggregation of annual to daily streamflow , 2010 .

[14]  Reto Knutti,et al.  Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there , 2013 .

[15]  Patrick A. Ray,et al.  The future nexus of the Brahmaputra River Basin: Climate, water, energy and food trajectories , 2016 .

[16]  Patrick M. Reed,et al.  Large-scale parallelization of the Borg multiobjective evolutionary algorithm to enhance the management of complex environmental systems , 2015, Environ. Model. Softw..

[17]  A. Castelletti,et al.  Tree‐based iterative input variable selection for hydrological modeling , 2013 .

[18]  Matteo Giuliani,et al.  Policy tree optimization for threshold-based water resources management over multiple timescales , 2018, Environ. Model. Softw..

[19]  Bingxin Yu,et al.  Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy options for adaptation , 2010 .

[20]  Joan O. Grimalt,et al.  East Asian monsoon climate during the Late Pleistocene: high-resolution sediment records from the south China Sea , 1999 .

[21]  R. Stouffer,et al.  Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management? , 2008, Science.

[22]  Suhung Shen,et al.  Biennial oscillation associated with the East Asian summer monsoon and tropical sea surface temperatures , 1995 .

[23]  Patrick A. Ray,et al.  Room for improvement , 1996 .

[24]  S. Tao,et al.  Changes in wind speed over China during 1956–2004 , 2009 .

[25]  M. Kummu,et al.  Spatiotemporal influences of ENSO on precipitation and flood pulse in the Mekong River Basin , 2013 .

[26]  Joseph R. Kasprzyk,et al.  Many objective robust decision making for complex environmental systems undergoing change , 2012, Environ. Model. Softw..

[27]  J. Abatzoglou,et al.  Improved Bias Correction Techniques for Hydrological Simulations of Climate Change , 2015 .

[28]  B. Goswami,et al.  Why ensemble mean projection of south Asian monsoon rainfall by CMIP5 models is not reliable? , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[29]  Gregory W. Characklis,et al.  Evaluating the impact of alternative hydro-climate scenarios on transfer agreements: Practical improvement for generating synthetic streamflows , 2013 .

[30]  Casey Brown,et al.  Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling , 2016 .

[31]  J. Kwadijk,et al.  Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands , 2010 .

[32]  Jean-Noël Thépaut,et al.  Northern Hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness , 2010 .

[33]  R. Vogel,et al.  Relations among storage, yield, and instream flow , 2007 .

[34]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  Curses, Tradeoffs, and Scalable Management: Advancing Evolutionary Multiobjective Direct Policy Search to Improve Water Reservoir Operations , 2016 .

[35]  Casey Brown,et al.  Expanded Decision-Scaling Framework to Select Robust Long-Term Water-System Plans under Hydroclimatic Uncertainties , 2015 .

[36]  Warren E. Walker,et al.  Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world , 2013 .

[37]  H. Madsen,et al.  Implementation and Comparison of Reservoir Operation Strategies for the Hoa Binh Reservoir, Vietnam using the Mike 11 Model , 2008 .

[38]  D. Pierson,et al.  Examination of change factor methodologies for climate change impact assessment , 2011 .

[39]  R. Katz,et al.  Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages , 1992 .

[40]  Wang Huijun.  The instability of the East Asian summer monsoon–ENSO relations , 2002 .

[41]  C. Vörösmarty,et al.  Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. , 2000, Science.

[42]  R. Knutti,et al.  Climate model genealogy , 2011 .

[43]  L. Juneng,et al.  Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in Southeast Asia region and its relationship with atmosphere–ocean variations in Indo-Pacific sector , 2005 .

[44]  C. Vörösmarty,et al.  Anthropogenic sediment retention: major global impact from registered river impoundments , 2003 .

[45]  Ming Xu,et al.  Changes in near‐surface wind speed in China: 1969–2005 , 2011 .

[46]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  Scalable Multiobjective Control for Large-Scale Water Resources Systems Under Uncertainty , 2018, IEEE Transactions on Control Systems Technology.

[47]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming , 1999, Nature.

[48]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming , 2014 .

[49]  L. Mearns,et al.  The effects of climate model similarity on probabilistic climate projections and the implications for local, risk‐based adaptation planning , 2015 .

[50]  Steve Bankes,et al.  Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis , 1993, Oper. Res..

[51]  Casey Brown,et al.  Decision scaling: Linking bottom‐up vulnerability analysis with climate projections in the water sector , 2012 .

[52]  R. L. Edwards,et al.  A High-Resolution Absolute-Dated Late Pleistocene Monsoon Record from Hulu Cave, China , 2001, Science.

[53]  Richard M. Vogel,et al.  Hypothesis tests for hydrologic alteration , 2015 .

[54]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  Balancing exploration, uncertainty and computational demands in many objective reservoir optimization , 2017 .

[55]  N. Poff,et al.  Ecological responses to altered flow regimes: a literature review to inform the science and management of environmental flows , 2010 .

[56]  David G. Groves,et al.  Developing Key Indicators for Adaptive Water Planning , 2015 .

[57]  V. Singh,et al.  Review of dependence modeling in hydrology and water resources , 2016 .

[58]  Robert J. Lempert,et al.  Confronting Surprise , 2002 .

[59]  Jonathan D. Herman,et al.  How should robustness be defined for water systems planning under change , 2015 .

[60]  R. Knutti,et al.  Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections , 2013 .

[61]  R. Shaw,et al.  IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Chapter 24 Asia , 2014 .

[62]  Bin Wang,et al.  Trends in global monsoon area and precipitation over the past 30 years , 2011 .

[63]  P. Reed,et al.  Beyond optimality: Multistakeholder robustness tradeoffs for regional water portfolio planning under deep uncertainty , 2014 .

[64]  H. Drange,et al.  INSTABILITY OF THE EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON-ENSO RELATIONSHIP IN A COUPLED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN GCM , 2004 .

[65]  Olli Varis,et al.  Sediment-related impacts due to upstream reservoir trapping, the Lower Mekong River , 2007 .

[66]  R. P. Kane.  El Niño timings and rainfall extremes in India, Southeast Asia and China , 1999 .

[67]  Herman Bouwer,et al.  Integrated water management: emerging issues and challenges , 2000 .

[68]  Xixi Lu,et al.  Basin-wide sediment trapping efficiency of emerging reservoirs along the Mekong , 2010 .

[69]  Anita Wreford,et al.  A survey of decision-making approaches for climate change adaptation: : Are robust methods the way forward? , 2016 .

[70]  D. Loucks,et al.  Managing flow, sediment, and hydropower regimes in the Sre Pok, Se San, and Se Kong Rivers of the Mekong basin , 2014 .

[71]  S. Steinschneider,et al.  A climate change range‐based method for estimating robustness for water resources supply , 2014 .

[72]  Joseph H. A. Guillaume,et al.  An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together? , 2016, Environ. Model. Softw..

[73]  G. Haug,et al.  Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East Asian monsoon , 2007, Nature.

[74]  Patrick A. Ray,et al.  Multidimensional stress test for hydropower investments facing climate, geophysical and financial uncertainty , 2018 .

[75]  Patrick M. Reed,et al.  Synthetic Drought Scenario Generation to Support Bottom-Up Water Supply Vulnerability Assessments , 2016 .

[76]  Howard S. Wheater,et al.  A stochastic reconstruction framework for analysis of water resource system vulnerability to climate‐induced changes in river flow regime , 2013 .

[77]  R. Wilby,et al.  A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods: impacts on low flows in the River Thames, United Kingdom , 2005 .

[78]  A. Kitoh,et al.  APHRODITE: Constructing a Long-Term Daily Gridded Precipitation Dataset for Asia Based on a Dense Network of Rain Gauges , 2012 .

[79]  C. Starr.  Social benefit versus technological risk. , 1969, Science.

[80]  David P. Braun,et al.  A Method for Assessing Hydrologic Alteration within Ecosystems , 1996 .

[81]  E. Wood,et al.  Bias correction of monthly precipitation and temperature fields from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 models using equidistant quantile matching , 2010 .

[82]  D. Cayan,et al.  Statistical Downscaling Using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) , 2014 .