Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Areas Rich in Ancient Remains: A Case Study of the Zhouyuan Region, China

In the past few decades, human activities have caused the emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide, which has severely impacted the Earth’s ecosystem and human health. Therefore, carbon reduction has become the focus of global attention. In this study, the Zhouyuan region of China, which is rich in ancient remains, is taken as an example. Based on the land use characteristics in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, the spatial-temporal evolution of land use and carbon storage in the Zhouyuan region is simulated using four methods, including land use classification, land use transfer maps, patch-level land-use simulation (PLUS), and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) models under three scenarios, including the natural development scenario, urban development priority, and heritage conservation priority in 2030. According to the results, the carbon storage in the area in 2030 under all three scenario simulations has decreased compared with 2020, indicating that the region faces great challenges in achieving its targets of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The paper points out four causes for the decrease in carbon storage, and five suggestions for increasing carbon storage are proposed, such as developing a carbon storage master plan, applying energy-saving technologies, establishing an ecological substitution mechanism, and so on. Through the study of carbon storage in the Zhouyuan region, this paper hopes to establish a mechanism to balance urban development, heritage conservation, and carbon sinks on the one hand, and encourage more scholars to participate in the study of carbon sinks in areas rich in ancient remains, so as to to jointly promote their healthy development on the other.