Modeling of electricity consumption in the Asian gaming and tourism center—Macao SAR, People's Republic of China

The use of electricity is indispensable to modern life. As Macao Special Administrative Region becomes a gaming and tourism center in Asia, modeling the consumption of electricity is critical to Macao's economic development. The purposes of this paper are to conduct an extensive literature review on modeling of electricity consumption, and to identify key climatic, demographic, economic and/or industrial factors that may affect the electricity consumption of a country/city. It was identified that the five factors, namely temperature, population, the number of tourists, hotel room occupancy and days per month, could be used to characterize Macao's monthly electricity consumption. Three selected approaches including multiple regression, artificial neural network (ANN) and wavelet ANN were used to derive mathematical models of the electricity consumption. The accuracy of these models was assessed by using the mean squared error (MSE), the mean squared percentage error (MSPE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The error analysis shows that wavelet ANN has a very promising forecasting capability and can reveal the periodicity of electricity consumption.

[1]  Theodoros Zachariadis,et al.  An empirical analysis of electricity consumption in Cyprus , 2007 .

[2]  Seung-Hoon Yoo,et al.  The causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN countries , 2006 .

[3]  K. Dhungel.  A causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Nepal , 2010 .

[4]  Seung-Hoon Yoo,et al.  Causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in Korea , 2006 .

[5]  Hao-Yen Yang,et al.  A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan , 2000 .

[6]  W. Y. Fung,et al.  Impact of urban temperature on energy consumption of Hong Kong , 2006 .

[7]  Fuat Egelioğlu,et al.  Economic variables and electricity consumption in Northern Cyprus , 2001 .

[8]  J. Kraft,et al.  Relationship between energy and GNP , 1978 .

[9]  R. Hill,et al.  Electricity use and economic development , 2000 .

[10]  S. Mallat.  A wavelet tour of signal processing , 1998 .

[11]  T. M. Lai,et al.  Characterization of commercial clothes dryers based on energy‐efficiency analysis , 2007 .

[12]  Harun Kemal Ozturk,et al.  Forecasting total and industrial sector electricity demand based on genetic algorithm approach: Turkey case study , 2005 .

[13]  G. E. Nasr,et al.  Neural networks in forecasting electrical energy consumption: univariate and multivariate approaches , 2002 .

[14]  Patrick E. Phelan,et al.  Forecasting the electricity consumption of the Mexican border states maquiladoras , 2004 .

[15]  Stéphane Mallat,et al.  A Theory for Multiresolution Signal Decomposition: The Wavelet Representation , 1989, IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell..

[16]  A. Aqeel,et al.  THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN PAKISTAN , 2001 .

[17]  S. Satchell,et al.  Why do regime‐switching models forecast so badly? , 1999 .

[18]  H. Pao.  Comparing linear and nonlinear forecasts for Taiwan's electricity consumption , 2006 .

[19]  Francis X. Diebold,et al.  Elements of Forecasting , 1997 .

[20]  D. Heathfield.  The Measurement of Capital Usage Using Electricity Consumption Data for the U.K , 1972 .

[21]  H. S. Houthakker,et al.  Some Calculations on Electricity Consumption in Great Britain , 1951 .

[22]  Yuk Yee Yan.  Climate and residential electricity consumption in Hong Kong , 1998 .

[23]  Z. Griliches,et al.  The Explanation of Productivity Change , 1967 .

[24]  E.W.C. Lo,et al.  Wavelet Transform Based Relay Algorithm for the Detection of Stochastic High Impedance Faults , 2006 .

[25]  Ingrid Daubechies,et al.  Ten Lectures on Wavelets , 1992 .

[26]  Y. Wolde‐Rufael.  Electricity consumption and economic growth: a time series experience for 17 African countries , 2006 .

[27]  M.H. Hassoun,et al.  Fundamentals of Artificial Neural Networks , 1996, Proceedings of the IEEE.

[28]  G. D. Nan,et al.  A definition of the gross domestic product-electrification interrelationship , 1994 .

[29]  V. Jain,et al.  Modelling of electrical energy consumption in Delhi , 1999 .