Interactive effects of atmospheric oxidising pollutants and heat waves on the risk of residential mortality

ABSTRACT Background The impact of heat waves and atmospheric oxidising pollutants on residential mortality within the framework of global climate change has become increasingly important. Objective In this research, the interactive effects of heat waves and oxidising pollutants on the risk of residential mortality in Fuzhou were examined. Methods We collected environmental, meteorological, and residential mortality data in Fuzhou from 1 January 2016, to 31 December 2021. We then applied a generalised additive model, distributed lagged nonlinear model, and bivariate three-dimensional model to investigate the effects and interactions of various atmospheric oxidising pollutants and heat waves on the risk of residential mortality. Results Atmospheric oxidising pollutants increased the risk of residential mortality at lower concentrations, and O3 and Ox were positively associated with a maximum risk of 2.19% (95% CI: 0.74–3.66) and 1.29% (95% CI: 0.51–2.08). The risk of residential mortality increased with increasing temperature, with a strong and long-lasting effect and a maximum cumulative lagged effect of 1.11% (95% CI: 1.01, 1.23). Furthermore, an interaction between atmospheric oxidising pollutants and heat waves may have occurred: the larger effects in the longest cumulative lag time on residential mortality per 10 µg/m3 increase in O3, NO2 and Ox during heat waves compared to non-heat waves were [−3.81% (95% CI: −14.82, 8.63)]; [−0.45% (95% CI: −2.67, 1.81)]; [67.90% (95% CI: 11.55, 152.71)]; 16.37% (95% CI: 2.43, 32.20)]; [−3.00% (95% CI: −20.80, 18.79)]; [−0.30% (95% CI: −3.53, 3.04)]. The risk on heat wave days was significantly higher than that on non-heat wave days and higher than the separate effects of oxidising pollutants and heat waves. Conclusions Overall, we found some evidence suggesting that heat waves increase the impact of oxidising atmospheric pollutants on residential mortality to some extent.

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