Flexible Reward Plans for Crowdsourced Tasks

We develop flexible reward plans to elicit truthful predictive probability distribution over a set of uncertain events from workers. In general, strictly proper scoring rules for categorical events only reward a worker for an event that actually occurred. However, different incorrect predictions vary in quality, and the principal would like to assign different rewards to them, according to her subjective similarity among events; e.g. a prediction of overcast is closer to sunny than rainy.